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Colombia’s intensifying conflict in three graphs

“The figures in terms of humanitarian consequences for 2024 were the worst of the past eight years.”

A man carries a child while waiting to register as a displaced person after being driven from his home by clashes between armed groups in Cucuta, Colombia earlier this year. Nathalia Angarita/REUTERS
A man carries a child while waiting to register as a displaced person after being driven from his home by clashes between armed groups in Cúcuta, Colombia earlier this year.

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Since the beginning of the year, Colombia has experienced a surge of violence from armed conflict: Mass displacement, restrictions on civilian movement, deaths, and a cascade of other humanitarian consequences are all on the rise.  

On 10 June alone, the Estado Mayo Central (EMC) – a splinter group of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) – launched more than 20 attacks targeting security forces in the southwestern departments of Cauca and Valle del Cauca. The attacks killed at least seven people, including two police officers and two civilians, and wounded dozens of others, marking another notch in the near-constant uptick in the country’s security crisis. 

“The figures in terms of humanitarian consequences for 2024 were the worst of the past eight years… and we have indicators that 2025 will confirm this rising trend,” said José Antonio Delgado, head of operations for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Colombia. “We have seen that in the number of confrontations between different armed groups but also between these groups and security forces, which is a more recent issue.”

In the first three months of 2025, the number of violent incidents – including attacks against security forces and civilians, massacres, conflict-related gender-based violence, and forced displacement – increased by 45% compared to the same period last year.  

Nearly a decade after a 2016 peace agreement officially ended a half-century of civil war between government forces, paramilitaries, and the FARC, government-led efforts to resolve armed conflict in the country seem increasingly feeble and out of reach. This is despite President Gustavo Petro’s promise during elections in 2022 to forge peace with armed groups.

Colombia is the world’s largest producer of cocaine. The uptick in violence is largely driven by the splintering of armed groups into rival factions who are competing for control over territory where illicit drug production, drug smuggling, and illegal mining take place. The introduction of new weaponry, especially drones, is adding a terrifying new element to the crisis.

To kick off the mini-series “Colombians fighting for their own peace”, which explores the different ways Colombians affected by violence try to contribute to peacebuilding, this story provides a snapshot of the country’s current security situation in three graphs.

The signing of the 2016 peace accords between the government and the FARC brought hope that the country would soon see the end of decades of conflict. The optimism and initial reduction in violence was reflected by a steep drop in the country’s population of forcibly displaced people. But last year, that number rebounded, reaching 7.3 million out of a total population of 52 million. 

Now, Colombia has one of the world’s largest populations of internally displaced people. And, since the beginning of this year, 66,141 people have been displaced due to fighting in the region of Catatumbo alone, making it the most recent example of the intensifying severity of the long-standing problem. 

Displaced people face economic uncertainty and often struggle to access food, healthcare, and education. They are also at greater risk than the rest of the population of experiencing depression, anxiety, post-traumatic disorders, and suicidal ideation. Substance abuse among displaced communities is also higher than in the rest of the population. 

For Indigenous communities, who are disproportionately affected by the armed conflict, displacement also means adapting to life in the cities they often relocate to, which is accompanied by the progressive loss of their traditional culture.

The use of new types of weapons by armed groups, notably of drones carrying explosives, is a key factor in Colombia's changing conflict dynamics. In 2024, the government registered 115 attacks with drones, and the trend is reportedly on the rise. 


Some of the drones being used have thermal imaging sensors that allow armed groups to map sites – such as police stations, military facilities and nearby villages – at night and attack them later when there are higher concentrations of people, sowing terror among civilian populations. 


In 2024, the ICRC registered 719 casualties from explosive devices, most of them civilians – an 89% increase compared to the previous year. 

The use of weaponised drones also puts aid groups at risk. Last February, for instance, an explosive device was dropped near a field hospital Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) had just set up in the Cauca region, wounding a local public health worker.

Delgado said the number of people affected by explosives has increased over the past year not only due to the greater use of drones and other improvised devices by armed groups, but also due to the use of new kinds of weapons by Colombian security forces.

One of ICRC’s main concerns, Delgado added, is that needs are increasing even as aid groups face funding cuts and shrinking access. “Humanitarian organisations are having less access to the communities in need of assistance because of armed groups’ control over them… but also due to the will, or decision, of some of the armed actors to deny access to aid groups,” he said.

In 2024, an increase in the fragmentation of Colombia’s armed groups led to intensified territorial disputes that resulted in the imposition of severe movement restrictions on tens of thousands of people. Referred to as confinement, these restrictions cause people to lose their sources of livelihood, and limit their access to health services, education, water, and basic sanitation – especially in Afro-Colombian and Indigenous communities in remote rural areas. 

Several reports have shown that, during Petro’s presidency, armed conflict-related violence has become less lethal while exposure to violence has grown more pervasive. One consequence of that exposure is confinement. The main causes of confinement are threats by armed groups, the fear of being hit in crossfire during confrontations, and the presence of landmines. 

“[In 2024,] territorial disputes between armed groups left more civilians caught in the crossfire and victims of forced recruitment and mobility restrictions, while non-lethal but coercive violence has become a primary tool for control and extraction of illicit revenues," a February report by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) stated. 

Confinement, as well as displacement, has a direct impact on food security. In Colombia, around 7.8 million people –15% of the population – are estimated to be acutely food insecure and are in need of urgent assistance, according to the latest hunger hotspots report by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP). 

 

Moderate to severe food insecurity increased by 3% – from 31.2% to 34.2% – between 2023 and 2024 in rural areas, while slightly decreasing (by 1.7%) in urban areas, according to Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics. 

Edited by Andrew Gully and Eric Reidy.

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