Despite a three-week-old Baghdad security plan that aims to ensure the country’s security and stability, sectarian violence has shown no signs of abating and is likely to increase, analysts say.
“The soldier with his rifle and tank can’t stop the sectarian bloodletting between Sunnis and Shias. The Iraqi government should prove that it is for all Iraqis and not for a specific sect and only then will sectarian violence end,” said Sarmad Saber Hassan, a Baghdad-based political analyst.
“There should be genuine reconciliation between them [Sunnis and Shias]. They have to sit around the table and tackle their problems, otherwise sectarian violence will increase,” he added.
On Tuesday, two suicide bombers blew themselves up among Shia pilgrims lining up at a checkpoint in the southern city of Hillah, killing at least 120 people and wounding about 190. More than 30 other pilgrims have been killed in dozens of bombings and shootings since the pilgrimage began this week.
Hundreds of thousands of Shia pilgrims were streaming by bus, car and foot into Karbala, 80km south of Baghdad, many of them marching behind banners affirming their reverence for Imam Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad. The killing of Hussein in 680 in a battle near Karbala by armies of a Sunni caliph cemented the schism between Islam’s major sects, Sunni and Shia.
Iraqi security forces have been bracing themselves for more trouble this weekend when the climax of Shia religious rites occur, marking the end of a 40-day mourning period for Imam Hussein.
The current Sunni-Shia conflict in Iraq was greatly accelerated on 22 February 2006 when a revered Shia shrine in Samarra, a Sunni-dominated city, was bombed. The attack spawned days of reprisal attacks between the Sunnis and Shias.
Analysts now fear that the Tuesday suicide bomb attacks will provoke violent reprisals by Shias and further exacerbate the Sunni-Shia divide. This, they add, will worsen an already severe humanitarian crisis.
However, analysts say that sectarian violence can be stopped if the Iraqi government discards military action and works, instead, on genuine reconciliation between Sunnis and Shias.
“The problem in Iraq is a political one as there are [sectarian] parties taking part in the government and others outside the political process. Security measures will not lead to any success,” said Dr Saad al-Hadithi, a political science lecturer at the University of Baghdad.
“Diagnosing the problem as a security one is wrong as all forces have popular support on the ground and most of them have preferred to lie low until the storm [US-Iraqi security plan] passes and then they will return to the arena,” al-Hadithi added.
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