Agencies plan for possible resurgence of hostilities

Aid agencies in Uganda are working on contingency plans in case hostilities flare up again between the Ugandan government and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) after the ceasefire lapsed this week.

"We have been working on a contingency plan in case there is a resumption of the insurgency. All clusters have been working on their part of the plan and we have a draft plan to discuss," said Alix Loriston, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) deputy director for Uganda.

A cessation of hostilities agreement signed in August 2006 between the Ugandan government and the LRA lapsed at midnight on Wednesday and could not be extended because rebels pulled out of peace talks mediated by the government of south Sudan in the city of Juba, after comments by Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir that the group was no longer welcome on Sudanese territory. The LRA leadership demanded a ‘neutral venue’ for the talks.

"The peace talks are at a critical point and according to the information [we have received], this uncertainty has forced people to slow down their return to their villages," said Loriston. Thousands of people displaced by the conflict had started returning to their villages, optimistic that the peace talks would end the war.

Loriston said any deterioration in security would require adjustments in the way humanitarian operations in northern Ugandan were conducted. It could, for example, mean a return to the requirement that food aid convoys be accompanied by armed escorts. "The main concern, however, is over resources, because, for example, of the 2007 Consolidated Appeal of US$127 million, only 14 percent has been secured," he said.

"It is already difficult to give return packages and the food requirement gap that we had reduced to 60 percent from 75 percent because more people were accessing their land for cultivation. This will have to be revised if the insurgency resumes. But we have no resources to do it. More than $60 million will be needed under the new plan that factors in a resumption to the conflict," Loriston explained.

Obonyo Olweny, the LRA spokesman, said the group would not attack civilians.

"LRA will not attack any civilians and therefore they should just go back home just as [LRA leader Joseph] Kony told them," he told IRIN in Nairobi, urging humanitarian agencies to continue with their work in the north.

The peace talks are at a critical point

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) was also preparing a plan for the worst-case scenario that entailed empowering local leaders by building their capacity to respond to any crisis. The agency was already considering procuring relief materials such as health kits and plastic sheeting, according to the agency's spokeswoman in Kampala, Robertta Russo.

"The contingency plan includes training local leaders on how to respond to things like sexual violence and protection issues and also facilitate communication between the army and the population, and support efforts to [make] the population [safe]," Russo said.

According to aid agencies, an estimated 230,000 internally displaced people in northern Ugandan returned to their villages in 2006 thanks to improved security. Up to 1.2 million more internally displaced people remained in camps or had moved to satellite settlements nearer their villages to be able to cultivate their farms.

Thousands of people have died during the 20-year insurgency in northern Uganda. The LRA is accused of abducting more than 20,000 children, conscripting boys as fighters or porters, and turning girls into sex slaves for senior male soldiers.

The International Criminal Court in The Hague has indicted five LRA leaders, including Kony. The indictments became a bone of contention at the peace talks, with the LRA demanding they be lifted.

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