Poor rain prospects as food insecurity worsens in pastoral areas

Food insecurity in the drought-hit pastoral areas of northern, northeastern and northwestern regions of Kenya is worsening even as forecasts by the country's meteorological department show that the October to December short rains in those areas are likely to be poor. The Kenya Metrological Department in its October-December rainfall outlook published on Monday predicted that drought conditions would continue in the districts of Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu and Isiolo, while Moyale, Mandera, Wajir and Garissa are likely to receive inadequate rainfall. Most of those pastoral districts, particularly those in northwest, would be facing the third poor season in succession. Recent assessments conducted by NGOs indicated that rates of Global Acute Child Malnutrition (GAM) were worsening and approaching an alarmingly high level in some of the affected districts, according to a Kenyan food security report released by the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS Net) on 10 September. "An assessment conducted in Mandera in August by the NGO Action Against Hunger shows that the current GAM rate of 26 percent has exceeded the already high baseline GAM of 20 percent," the FEWS Net report said. "As an additional indicator of extreme stress, the education sector working group of the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) reported that enrollment rates in 384 out of 721 primary schools in northern and eastern pastoral districts of Moyale, Mandera, Marsabit, West Pokot, Garissa, Wajir and Turkana districts severely declined due to the early migration of entire pastoral households in search of water," it added. The meteorological department report said that the western, central and coastal regions of Kenya were likely to receive "near normal rainfall tending to above normal" precipitation between October and December. According to FEWS Net, national food security was expected to improve significantly by February 2005 in the worst drought-affected southeastern districts and in the marginal agricultural areas as a result of the favourable short rains outlook. The government of Kenya distributed 43,156 mt in 26 worst-affected districts in July and August, according to the FEWS Net report, and the UN World Food Programme (WFP) said it will this month start its emergency food distribution in the priority districts of Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Kwale, Kilifi, Makueni and Kitui. The WFP emergency operation would be extended in a phased manner to all the 26 drought-affected districts beginning October as recommended by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group, WFP said in its latest emergency report on Kenya.