Teetering on the Brink

As 2003 draws to a close, three long and difficult peace processes in the Horn of Africa are also due to reach their climax. Although the main consideration is to bring about peace in the countries concerned, the accords are inextricably linked due to the various and sometimes complex alliances which bind the region together. Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia – some of the poorest countries on the continent, ravaged for years by conflict and natural disaster – could be seeing a chink of light at the end of a very dark tunnel. Sudan stands on the brink of an historic and final peace accord, which could put an end to 20 years of civil war. In Somalia, adversarial faction leaders are also due to conclude their complicated peace process which started in October 2002 although no official deadline has been set. The twice-postponed demarcation of the common border between Eritrea and Ethiopia is scheduled to get underway this month, theoretically ending a very bitter dispute. Peace is sorely needed. The region is awash with hundreds of thousands of displaced people and refugees, fleeing wars and drought. The Horn has been particularly hard-hit by drought this year - in Ethiopia alone, some 13 million people are at risk. In Eritrea, two thirds of the population are affected. Somalis are scattered far and wide as they seek refuge from constant fighting in their country. The same goes for the Sudanese - driven across borders and state lines as they flee encroaching attacks. Aid comes in the form of emergency assistance, constantly year after year. Peace would allow the planning of longer-term development projects and the evolution of economies, reducing dependency on emergency aid and gradually ushering in self-sustainance. It could not come at a better time for the people of the Horn, enabling many to start a life they have only dreamed of. And the international community, including the humanitarian staffers who have to work under these uncertain conditions, are anxiously awaiting developments. But in some cases, optimism at the beginning of the year has given way to doubt and uncertainty. SUDAN When the government of Sudan and rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) agreed to kickstart stalled peace talks in June 2002, hopes were high that an end was in sight to Africa’s longest running civil war. The historic Machakos framework peace deal on a cessation of hostilities, was signed in Kenya in October 2002. It was strengthened by an addendum in February this year which provided for a verification and monitoring team to oversee the cessation of hostilities. Later that month, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed on thorny issues such as power and wealth sharing. All seemed to be heading in the right direction, buoyed by purposeful US engagement in the current process. But later in the year, the carefully constructed peace deals started unravelling as the sides quibbled over a draft framework document and there was considerable diplomatic scrambling to get the talks back on course. It seems to have paid off. The stop-start process, mediated by the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) grouping under the chairmanship of Kenya, was suddenly given a new lease of life in September when Sudanese Vice-President Ali Osman Taha and SPLA leader John Garang agreed to meet face-to-face in Kenya. On 25 September, those talks culminated in the signing of a breakthrough deal on security issues and there is eager anticipation that the momentum will be carried through to a full peace agreement. The devastating war between the Moslem north and mostly Christian and animist south, in which up to two million people have been killed, could finally be reaching its conclusion. SOMALIA Somalia’s bloody civil war broke out in 1991 after the demise of president Siad Barre and has been raging ever since. Poverty and greed have fuelled this war as faction leaders stepped in to take advantage of the power vacuum, and anarchic fiefdoms developed. The lack of any central government led to the proliferation of weapons and factions. In 2000, a conference in the Djibouti city of Arta led to the establishment of the Transitional National Government (TNG) and other institutions – an interim arrangement due to last three years. But the TNG never consolidated power much beyond certain areas of Mogadishu and the south. As the transitional period approached its end, an all-inclusive peace conference – mediated by IGAD – was organised in the Kenyan town of Eldoret in October 2002 to decide on the way forward.

Somalis hope to rebuild their country with international assistance

Since then the interim has passed and the situation is still far from resolved. Many Somalis at the talks say the conference does not belong to them and that decisions are “imposed” on them, although the mediators say that now the meeting has entered the final phase on power-sharing, the delegates are in control of their destiny. But the TNG leaders in Mogadishu and some prominent faction chiefs are opposed to a charter which is supposed to act as the blueprint for future institutions. And an IGAD technical committee, made up of Somalia’s neighbours – Kenya, Djibouti and Ethiopia – which is meant to steer the talks, has had internal wrangling of its own. In fact, Djibouti has just pulled out of the talks altogether. While some speak of breakthrough agreements, others are walking out. It seems an impasse has been reached. ERITREA-ETHIOPIA The Ethiopia-Eritrea row differs from the other two in that it is not a civil war, although some analysts believe that the lingering effects of the crisis could lead to conflict within the countries themselves. In May 1998, a skirmish between the armed forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea in the border town of Badme flared up into a full-scale war that was to last two years with tens of thousands of casualties on both sides. In December 2000, a peace agreement was signed in Algiers which among other issues provided for an independent boundary commission to rule definitively on the common border between the countries – something that was never formalised when Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993. The 13 April 2002 ruling controversially put the symbolic town of Badme in Eritrea, and analysts say Ethiopia has been unable to swallow the bitter pill. Demarcation, which would mark the end of the peace process and the pullout of the 4,200-strong UN peacekeeping force (UNMEE), has been twice postponed as Ethiopia seeks to have the border decision changed in certain areas. In his strongest statement yet, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has called on the Security Council to intervene, saying the peace process needs to be “salvaged” and a new body should be set up to rule afresh on the contested areas. He has warned of the possibility of renewed war. The Security Council replied by telling Ethiopia to implement the ruling. It appears that demarcation, due to begin this month, could again be postponed and the whole peace process looks very shaky. SHIFTING ALLIANCES The uncertainty clouding the Horn risks torpedoing peace prospects in the individual countries and in the region at large. As political analyst Leenco Lata, a former leader of Ethiopia’s rebel Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), points out: “Inter-state and intra-state conflicts in the Horn of Africa display the tendency to connect seamlessly and to resonate with each other to an extent rarely seen elsewhere. This resonance must be kept in mind in any attempt to resolve conflict in the region.” [1]

Armed Afar pastoralists

Internal and regional alliances have been shifting at a fast pace in the Horn this year. Sudan and Ethiopia – both of which have ongoing conflicts with Eritrea – have joined forces with Yemen to form an alliance aimed at isolating their tiny neighbour. Historically, Eritrea and Somalia have been friends (to the extent that Eritrea refuses to recognise the self-declared republic of Somaliland’s bid for independence), and Asmara and Somalia’s TNG are further united in their opposition to the regime in Addis Ababa. Somalia itself is riven by pro- and anti-Ethiopia factions. But despite Sudan’s friendship with Ethiopia, the TNG says relations with Khartoum, a fellow Moslem government, are good. And the fifth country of the region – the often-forgotten but crucial Red Sea state of Djibouti – shifts uncomfortably among its larger neighbours. Ties with Eritrea have improved and the focus for tension now lies with Ethiopia to some extent over differences regarding the Somali issue, although Djibouti is a vital conduit for landlocked Ethiopia. Its strategic importance has been further emphasised by the establishment of a US counter-terrorism operation on its territory. Haile Menkerios, who heads the Africa I division of the UN’s Department of Political Affairs, says settlement of one conflict will not affect the other in a mechanical way, but could lessen tension in the other states. “One settlement can lead to a general releasing of tension and contribute to a better atmosphere in the region,” he says. He also points out that “given the energy and effort that have been made,” all the peace processes are reaching a critical stage. John Prendergast of the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group agrees that each process has to succeed for regional stability to take hold. “But the three conflicts are remarkably self-sustaining and independently driven,” he told IRIN. “Resolution in one would not necessarily mean resolution in the other – all have complex, long-running causes.” Continued