Humanitarian gains as peace hopes rise - Continued

NEGOTIATIONS Mediators have indicated that progress on the outstanding issues currently on the table might take a bit more time than originally planned, and that the original 30 June deadline for the signing of a final peace agreement is now seen as unrealistic. Sumbeiywo has now set mid-August as the target date for completing the draft agreement. In recent months, discussions have taken place on a number of issues, including wealth-sharing and monetary arrangements during the proposed transition period. Regarding wealth-sharing issues, the SPLM/A has said that, since the south had been devastated by many years of war, it would require a large share of the national oil wealth to catch up with the north. "If you go to southern Sudan, you will not believe that people are still in that stage in the 21st century," SPLM/A spokesman George Garang told IRIN. “The south must be made to catch up with the north.” Both sides are now backing a mandate given to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to draft "acceptable" modalities of wealth distribution in the country. "We are not talking about percentages any more. That has proved to be a non-starter,” Dirdeiry said. “The real formulation is now based on the needs to develop the south as well as the needs of the government to carry out its activities. And this format is really acceptable," Another important negotiating issue has been that of the three disputed regions of Abyei, the Nuba Mountains, and Southern Blue Nile, all of which have been part of north Sudan for administrative purposes since 1956, and have not been included in the main IGAD negotiating process. Negotiations on the three areas have been dealt with separately from the main IGAD negotiating process. [For more background to this issue go to: www.irinnews.org/webspecials/sudan]. However, some important issues are still to be finally resolved, including the location of the national capital and security arrangements during the transition period. A high-profile final push could lead to final agreement. Many observers anticipate that, in the not too distant future, the mediators will propose a draft final agreement that represents a degree of compromise from both sides. "The fear among the mediators is that the pressure will slacken and the momentum will die if the negotiations drag on into the final quarter of the year," Justice Africa said in a statement it issued on 27 May. BROADER PARTICIPATION Sudanese groups outside of the government and SPLM/A have begun to raise their profile during the most recent, fifth session of talks. Several Sudanese opposition parties met after the fifth session to discuss progress on the Sudanese peace process, and to seek a broader consensus on widening the scope of the talks beyond government-SPLM/A negotiations, to the broader national level. The outcome of the meeting, the "Cairo Declaration", spelled out proposals that were designed to emphasise the unity of Sudan while also supporting the Machakos peace process. The future involvement of all Sudanese political forces in building a post-conflict Sudan has also been spelled out in the Machakos framework, to allow their involvement in a Constitutional Drafting Commission, which is to be in charge of producing the legal framework to be used within the interim period. “In the Machakos framework, there is a provision for inclusivity,” Sumbeiywo told IRIN. “There is no point in signing an agreement, only to start another war because some people were left out. All parties to the conflict should be included at some point,” he said. WASHINGTON'S ROLE The United States government's engagement in the peace process has been seen by many as key in furthering efforts to end Sudan’s 20-year civil war. Dirdeiry said the US role in the process had been "remarkable". "The involvement of the United States government in the peace process is an advantage, in assisting parties to develop confidence between them. I believe the US still has a role to play in post-conflict Sudan," he told IRIN. Analysts like Hiteng think that it would be in the interest of the negotiating parties to secure a peace agreement by 21 October, when US President George Bush is expected to report back to the Congress on progress at the talks. A slowing down of progress by that date could prompt the US government to bring into effect punitive provisions contained within the "Sudan Peace Act". The Act, signed into law in October 2002, requires the US administration to certify to Congress every six months that both the government and the SPLM/A are negotiating in good faith. If the government were found not to be negotiating in good faith then a number of provisions of the Act would come into effect, including the opposition of loans and grants to Khartoum, and the downgrading of diplomatic relations. If the SPLM/A were also found not to be negotiating in good faith then no punitive measures would be implemented against Khartoum. "I don't think they will allow the US to activate the Sudan Peace Act because it is not in their interest," Hiteng told IRIN. WAY FORWARD As with peace processes in other areas of the globe, the building of trust between formerly warring Sudanese groups is likely to be big factor in securing a lasting peace. With this in mind, mediators and international partners have already helped establish verification and monitoring teams in Sudan to help implement agreements on civilian protection as well as cessation of hostilities. However, the SPLM/A has indicated that it still has lingering fears over the robustness of any new agreements. "There is no agreement which the north has not dishonoured since independence. We have been at war since that time because of continuous violations of agreements by Khartoum," Garang told IRIN. "The issue of whether any agreement can last in Sudan is really questionable." The government sees 2003 as the year of peace in Sudan. "We are left with very little time now, and we can't afford to waste any time,” Dirdeiry told IRIN. “The government is ready”. Meanwhile, Sudanese people across the country are watching and hoping for an end to be brought, once and for all, to 20 years of brutal conflict. Sudan peace process web special IGAD IRIN interview with Lazarus Sumbeiywo Sudan Peace Act Chronology of key events [ENDS]