Early estimates predict harvest increase

Prospects are looking good for Zambia's harvest this year with early estimates predicting a 33 percent increase on last year's production, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) said in its latest report. The news comes as a relief to the country, listed as one of the six in Southern Africa most severely affected by drought-induced food shortages. Harvests are still being reaped, but initial reports indicate that in spite of the damaging effects of cyclone Japhet in some parts earlier this year, favourable rainfall and an increase in areas planted could lead to a rise in output. FEWS NET said the World Food Programme (WFP) estimated normal production in most of the north, while the Zambia National Farmers Union (ZNFU) reported "very favourable" conditions for a good harvest this year, especially among commercial farmers. Production by small-scale farmers is also expected to match or exceed commercial production, given the good rains, a 50 percent fertliser and seed subsidy programme, food security packs that included free maize seed or fertiliser, and various relief and recovery interventions that distributed free seed. "Therefore, a crude estimate of the 2002/2003 harvest should lie between 800,000 mt and one million mt," FEWS NET said. "An expected harvest of this level will imply at the least a 33 percent increase above last season's production and about eight percent above the recent five-year average." However, the report warned that the consumption of green maize by households with severely depleted stock as a result of last year's food shortages could result in reduced production levels. Government continued to import maize in April, 60 percent of which was destined for food relief programmes through the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit with the rest held as strategic reserves in the Food Reserve Agency. Allaying private sector concerns that further releases of grains onto the market would depress prices, the government said it would only do so if "the situation warrants it", and at the appropriate times. The report also noted that most of the country's grain reserves were bought from supplies grown in the north of the country. As the harvest got underway, maize availability on the market was improving and prices were declining in most provincial centres. "The downward trend in maize grain prices is expected to continue until the end of the harvest and marketing season around August, when most household stocks will start to run out." FEWS NET said. However, while prospects appear good, the WFP has extended its Emergency Operation providing assistance to the most vulnerable in some districts of southern Zambia until the end of June. In areas where relief has continued, the target population has been drastically reduced and the numbers of people in need are expected to drop to 582,000 during May and June. This is in sharp contrast to the 2.6 million people initially identified for food relief and the 1.082 million people requiring assistance in April. A number of assessments have been conducted to study how households coped over the last difficult year and are expected to be released later in May. Meanwhile, the Department of Animal Production and Health indicated that 2002 saw major outbreaks of livestock disease around the country, which have reduced the animal population and affected household livelihoods. The main concern is over Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia in the North Western Province. As a result of the disease, there is a ban on live cattle movement from Western and North Western Province. Although slaughtering is permitted, fewer slaughtering facilities in the North Western Province are creating income losses there. For the full report: www.fews.net