Urgent action needed to head off civil war, says ICG

Efforts to hold Iraq together are on the “verge of collapse” and urgent steps must be taken to avert “all-out” civil war which could destabilise the entire region, warns a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) think-tank. “There’s still time to forge a genuine national compact and promote a national identity, but institutional restraints that so far have prevented a break-up are fast eroding,” said Robert Malley, ICG Middle East and North Africa Programme Director. “The main burden is on Iraq’s leaders, but they need all the help and pressure the US and others can muster.” The report, entitled “The Next Iraqi War? Sectarianism and Civil Conflict”, was issued on Monday in the wake of sectarian violence that began with the 22 February bombing of the Shi’ite al-Askariya shrine in Samara. At least 165 people, including both Sunnis and Shi’ites, have been killed in this and subsequent attacks and tens of mosques burned down. “It’s now up to Iraq’s religious authorities to urge their followers to remain calm in the face of provocations, and up to political leaders to lower their dangerously inflammatory rhetoric,” warned ICG Middle East Project Director Joost Hiltermann, “lest a low-intensity conflict turn into a full-scale sectarian war and the country disintegrate”. Social and political tensions, on the rise since the removal of former president Saddam Hussein in April 2003, have turned into “deep rifts”, the report notes. “Iraq’s mosaic of communities has begun to fragment along ethnic, confessional and tribal lines, bringing instability and violence to many areas, especially those with mixed populations,” it says. ICG urges the Shi’ite political bloc to establish a government “of genuine national unity”, which would include Sunnis, Shi’ites, Kurds, as well as religious and secular parties. Shi’ite parties won 128 of 275 seats in the national assembly in a 15 December election, falling short of a majority by 10 seats. Despite over two months of negotiations, however, political squabbling has delayed the appointment of a cabinet. Shi’ites make up approximately 60 percent of the Iraqi population, followed by Kurds, with 20 percent. Although they represented the ruling caste under Saddam Hussein, Sunni Arabs constitute a minority of between 15 and 20 percent. Washington, meanwhile, has continued to express frustration with the accelerating trend towards sectarian polarization. US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad said last week that the US was “not going to invest the resources of the American people to build forces run by people who are sectarian”. Khalilzad went on to warn that the coveted defence and interior ministries must be placed in the hands of non-sectarian politicians, free of any associations with insurgent groups. According to the ICG, there is a pressing need to give significant government positions to Sunni Arab leaders. The report also recommends that the national constitution, adopted in an October 2005 referendum, be revised to protect all communities’ fundamental interests and guarantee fair distribution of national oil revenues. To access the full report see: www.crisisgroup.org