SOUTHERN AFRICA: Early crop forecasts predict deficits

Early crop forecasts suggest reduced grain harvests this season in several Southern African countries due to bad weather, according to the SADC Regional Early Warning Unit.

"Currently the overall figures show surpluses for the region as a whole," REWU statistician Bentry Chaura told IRIN on Wednesday. "But several countries are going to have problems."

Deficits are forecast for Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. With the exception of war-hit Angola, these are climate-related. Heavy rains have pounded much of the region, while Tanzania has faced unseasonably dry weather.

South Africa, the regional breadbasket, has revised its output prediction for commercially produced grain down from an estimated 7.6 million mt to around 5 million mt. National consumption is some 7 million mt.

"South Africa is the main reason for concern," REWU manager Richard Masundire said. "It will have a significant impact for regional supplies as South Africa is the major exporter of maize for all countries in the region."

The first official figures from Zimbabwe for the April-July harvest estimate that production of the staple maize will hit 1.5 million mt, below the national consumption requirement of 2 million mt.

The Harare-based SADC Early Warning Unit, however, stressed that the regional forecasts were initial estimates that could change later into the harvest.