Concern over threat of renewed political instability

Malawi's vice-president was denied bail by a magistrate on Tuesday for the charge of plotting to assassinate President Bingu wa Mutharika, in a case several political analysts fear could further undermine political stability. Vice-President Cassim Chilumpha returned to Maula prison in the capital, Lilongwe, for a fifth consecutive night after the magistrate rejected the argument that he was immune from prosecution, and referred the case to the high court. "This is a derogation of democratic processes and the rule of law," said Rafiq Hajat, director of the NGO, Institute for Policy Interaction. "It hasn't really sunk in yet, but I think one element people are feeling is fear - are we going back to the old days [of dictator Kamazu Banda]?" The government insists it has evidence that Chilumpha, a senior member of the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF), hired a would-be assassin from South Africa to eliminate Mutharika and take power as the next in line, constitutionally. But it is a scenario several analysts said was difficult to swallow, and alleged it was more likely the latest twist in drawn-out power struggle. "When you look at the politics that's been between the president and the vice-president, one has grounds for being suspicious [of the government's case]," said Boniface Dulani, a political science lecturer at Chancellor College. Chilumpha's arrest came two months after the Constitutional Court ordered his reinstatement following an attempt by Mutharika to remove him through a "constructive resignation". The court ruled that only parliament could impeach the vice-president. The men have been at loggerheads since Mutharika, a protégé of former president Bakili Muluzi, quit the UDF to form his own party after meeting resistance to his anti-graft campaign. Chilumpha was first arrested last year on corruption charges related to his time as education minister under Muluzi. Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs Henry Phoya has denied that the new treason charge against Chilumpha was politically motivated and alleged that Chilumpha had ordered a prominent businessman, linked to Muluzi, to hire a professional hitman. The unnamed would-be assassin is expected to be a key witness for the state. The UDF has insisted on Chilumpha's right to immunity, arguing that the right course of action would be to take the case to parliament, prove his guilt, and ask parliament to impeach him. "This is not the first time that senior UDF members have been charged with treason," said UDF spokesman Sam Mpasu, a reference to the arrest last year of four party leaders for an alleged assassination plot. "This is a ploy by government to get rid of the UDF." Analysts warned that after last year's intense political wrangling, in which the opposition tried to impeach Mutharika, Malawi was again heading for instability. The president's Democratic Progressive Party holds a minority of seats in parliament, and Chilumpha's arrest "may serve to unify the ranks of the previously fragmented UDF", said Hajat. When parliament resumes in June, the first casualty could be the national budget. "I don't think the government and the country will be able to move forward, and will be tied up [again] with these power struggles," commented Dulani. Last year diplomats in Malawi intervened, calling on parliament to halt the impeachment attempt, which was diverting attention from a serious drought-related food crisis. The bigger concern, said Dulani, was Mutharika's alleged authoritarian streak. "There's an irony: this week [President Robert] Mugabe is visiting Malawi and we're naming a street after him, I wonder if we are going down the same road [as Zimbabwe]?"