Little to celebrate as country turns 26

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe assured his countrymen on Tuesday that there was a ray of hope, predicting the economy could grow by one or two percent - the first positive move in eight straight years of recession. Addressing low-key celebrations to commemorate independence from Britain 26 years ago, a frail-looking Mugabe said the government planned to stabilise the economy in the next six to nine months "by focusing on food security and increased agricultural production" and "foreign exchange generation", accompanied by "aggressive marketing of Zimbabwe as a conducive investment [destination]". Zimbabweans are suffering shortages of food, foreign exchange and fuel, and an inflation rate in March of 913.6 percent. Mugabe's projected agro-led growth is despite estimates that Zimbabwe will again be unable to feed itself this year. Mgcini Nyoni, an economic analyst, was nonplussed by Mugabe's optimism. "We have the worst inflation in the world, high unemployment, a collapse of the agricultural and manufacturing sector - so that does not conjure up images of an improving economy." A chaotic land reform programme beginning in 2000 accelerated Zimbabwe's economic decline, although the government insists it has been the victim of "sanctions" by key donor countries in punishment for the seizure of white-owned farms. A crowd of around 15,000 came to the 60,000-seater National Sports Stadium on the outskirts of the capital, Harare, where Mugabe, 82, appealed to the youth not to join the brain drain leaving Zimbabwe. "If you go away, who will build your country? Please don't run away from me, I am one of you ... When you get to the United Kingdom, they will give you dirty, menial jobs." An estimated three million Zimbabweans out of a population of 13 million are living outside the country. Mugabe's speech provided some cheer for the armed forces: "We know the conditions of living and salaries of our forces are deplorable. Government is dedicated to reviewing these salaries and conditions of service in order to enable members of our forces to be more comfortable than they have been before." The move was widely expected after the Zimbabwe National Army Commander, General Constantine Chiwenga, had reportedly warned of discontent in the ranks over salaries. Flashes of the old fist-waving Mugabe returned when he warned the leader of a faction of the opposition, Morgan Tsvangirai, not to go ahead with proposed street demonstrations against his rule. "Anyone, therefore, who dares lead any group of persons to embark on a campaign of violence or terrorist activities, will be inviting the full wrath of the law to descend mercilessly on him or on those who follow him. You will be playing with fire!" Nelson Chamisa, spokesman for the Tsvangirai faction of the Movement for Democratic Change, said Mugabe's statement was an attempt to frighten Zimbabweans who wanted to embark on peaceful demonstrations. "We just regard those as his geriatric convulsions," Chamisa said. "Mugabe has no solutions to the problems facing the people of Zimbabwe, and that is why he can use threats against his own people."