Concern over drought warnings

South Africa may be heading for a prolonged drought, which researchers warn could be among the most severe in decades.

The country "is currently experiencing drought conditions over most of the summer rainfall regions", the South African Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) said.

"The drought in Limpopo [province] is worsening, with many dams nearly half full and water levels in some having fallen to as low as two percent. Large numbers of animals are also dying and farmers are forced to sell their livestock," the CSIR warned.

The main provinces affected by the drought are the northern Limpopo province, the eastern coastal province of KwaZulu-Natal and the central Mpumalanga province. The central Free State province and North West Province "will also be seriously affected if no rain falls within the next few weeks", the CSIR warned.

By using satellite imagery, the CSIR's Satellite Application Centre (SAC) has constructed an archive of vegetation condition maps that stretches back to 1986. To put the current weather conditions in context, the CSIR pointed to data on previous droughts.

"The 1982-83 and 1991-92 droughts were the most severe meteorological droughts of the 20th century over Southern Africa. In the 1991-92 drought, 70 percent of the crops failed. It was estimated that half of the population in the affected area was at risk of malnutrition, other related health problems, and even starvation," the CSIR noted.

"Satellite imagery is indicating very similar results when comparing the 1992 and 2003 October vegetation condition maps. The imagery shows shocking similarities with the disastrous drought year of 1992. If current dry conditions prevail for the next two months, South Africa can expect one of the biggest drought disasters in 100 years," the CSIR SAC warned.

The organisation also pointed out that recent wild fires had already negatively affected agricultural production.

"The huge number of wild land fires that occurred in the Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal provinces between July and September have destroyed thousands of hectares of grazing. Farmers will be forced to sell livestock due to a lack of grazing," the CSIR said.

A sharp decline in agricultural production would not only have implications for South Africa, but also for the region. During the past year the World Food Programme (WFP) procured more than 200,000 mt of food aid from South Africa for its regional emergency operations. Its current operation targets more than 6 million vulnerable people in the region.

WFP spokesman Richard Lee said it was "still too early" to say what effect a drought in South Africa would have, both locally and in terms of regional food needs. "We'll have to wait and see what impact it does have on South Africa," he said.

"We do not know what the situation will be like regionally ... we have no idea what the needs will be across Southern Africa next year," as some forecasts had predicted average to above average rainfall in most parts of the region, Lee noted.

Grain SA spokesman Bully Botma said a prolonged drought would have a disastrous effect on harvest prospects. Farmers were just starting their planting season, "today, 10 October, is the optimum date" for planting to begin. The planting season ended in December he explained.

A dry winter, which saw widespread wheat crop failure, meant there was very little "carryover moisture" in the soil. "If there's a prolonged drought, I hesitate to think what would happen [during the harvest months of June to August]," Botma added.