GDP growth up to 4 percent possible, EIU says

Burundi's economy, set to rise to between 3.5 percent and 4 percent over 2002-03, will be the highest growth rate of real gross domestic product in the war-torn country since 1998, the Economist Intelligence Unit reported on Monday.

In its assessment, the unit said donor resources would most likely support increased public spending in the social sectors and the rehabilitation of rural infrastructure "in some areas".

Although this would enhance the availability of foreign exchange, the unit said, "any meaningful increase in foreign and domestic investment will have to await a comprehensive ceasefire". A ceasefire, it added, would also enable agricultural output to rise and have a strong deflationary impact on the economy.

Ways of achieving a quick ceasefire and donor support for the country will be focuses of a consultative meeting on Burundi due to begin in New York on Friday. The meeting, convened by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, is to be attended by special envoys and representatives of the UN, the EU and the Organisation of African Unity, the continent's foremost political body.

One of two Burundian Hutu armed dissident movements - the Conseil national pour la defense de la democratie-Forces pour la defense de la democratie - told the Tanzanian government in a security meeting between 28 May and 3 June that it was committed to ceasefire talks "as soon as possible" with Burundian political and military leaders.