Policy divisions on Zimbabwe

At the heart of South Africa's "softly-softly" approach towards its troubled northern neighbour Zimbabwe, is the lack of a clear policy consensus over what Pretoria's role should be, regional analysts have told IRIN.

A high-powered African National Congress (ANC) delegation led by Vice-President Jacob Zuma is due in Harare on Thursday for talks with President Robert Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party. They are expected to discuss Pretoria's concerns with political violence in the run-up to Zimbabwe's presidential elections in March.

Quite why President Thabo Mbeki has resorted to party-to-party talks between two political movements that do not have a history of contact is unclear.

"The government is desperate to get ZANU-PF to change its ways so they are trying every conceivable method - that's the only way I can understand it," deputy director of the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAII), Moletsi Mbeki, told IRIN.

But the government has resisted calls for tougher action against Mugabe to ensure free and fair elections. President Mbeki has insisted that South Africa - the region's superpower - would work through the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the regional trade organisation that last week rejected the possibility of sanctions as a means to influence Harare.

According to Moletsi Mbeki, who has strong links within the ANC, the "critical issue" is that there is no agreement in government over Zimbabwe policy. He told IRIN that consensus did not even exist on whether Zimbabwe's crisis had as yet impacted on South Africa, and neither was there an understanding of ZANU-PF and how to influence it.

"There is a point of view within the ANC that in 1994 we had to cope with a lot of violence, and the MDC [Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change] are cry babies, because we still got on and had our election," Mbeki said.

He added that South African leaders were comfortable with the post-apartheid perception that they were "nice guys" whom the rest of the world sympathised with. "It's a problem with self-image rather than Zimbabwe," Mbeki said. "South Africa is faced with some tough decisions where we have to show some teeth and we don't know how to do it."

However, according to Harare-based economist John Robertson, South Africa has missed the opportunity to act effectively in Zimbabwe. With the economy at an all-time low, 550,000 rural Zimbabweans faced with severe food shortages, and poverty deepening, "problems are mounting at such a pace its almost impossible that any group of politicians can find a suitable answer".

He told IRIN that if South Africa were to have earlier threatened economic measures in defence of human rights and fair elections, such as closing the border and shutting off fuel and electricity supplies, Harare would have taken notice. But, with three months to go to the presidential poll, "to try and do it now may not necessarily change the government's course. They could actually gain political mileage out of it".