Cereal deficit forecast

Southern Africa is expected to face an overall cereal deficit this year with only Malawi and South Africa forecast to produce a small surplus, a regional early warning unit said in its latest report. Cereal production, which includes the regional staple maize, is expected to be down by 17 percent, the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) said. Around 94 percent of Southern Africa's overall cereal requirements can be met through stocks and production, but commercial imports are needed to cover the remaining six percent. Normally, South Africa and Zimbabwe have been able to meet the import requirements of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). But this year South Africa's maize production is down by over 30 percent from last year, and is slightly below domestic requirements. In Zimbabwe cereal production is 27 percent lower than last year. "The decline in economic conditions in Zimbabwe, and the resulting drop in cereal production is of growing concern. With a large urban population and high unemployment and poverty rates, food shortages and civil unrest could ensue," the USAID-funded network said. According to FEWS, the region's cereal shortfall is primarily conflict related. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Angola remain most at risk of serious food insecurity. Refugees in other SADC countries - notably Tanzania, Zambia and Namibia - will continue to require food assistance. Weather conditions have also played a role, FEWS said. Mozambique and Malawi have suffered from localised flooding and affected areas still need food assistance. Zambia and Zimbabwe were also hit by heavy rains earlier this year. Despite below normal production, Botswana, Swaziland and Lesotho are expected to be able to meet their own food needs through commercial imports, although 15 percent of Lesotho's population could require food assistance. However, as the three countries' food security status is closely linked with South Africa, "market conditions there could affect food security conditions in neighbouring countries", FEWS NET noted.