Peace possible after “balance of power” achieved

Meanwhile, peace could only be restored in Burundi when those fighting came to the realisation that they could not defeat “the other one”, Burundi analyst Van Eck said. Commenting on the recent stance adopted by both the FNL and the government - both sides saying they will fight on - Van Eck said there would be an “escalation” of fighting in the country in the next few coming months. “The enemies have to have a balance of power and see that no one can achieve military victory, then they will be ready to negotiate,” he told IRIN on Thursday. “Then there can be a successful ceasefire,” he added. He said that because of the rebels’ movements back into the country, and the few attacks they had carried out in various parts of the country, “they think they can win militarily”. “The army has had to intensify its counterattacks,” Van Eck said.

He said it was good that the UN Security Council mission had visited the country and said that there was no military solution to the war. He said the international community was for peace in Burundi. “All they need to see is the seriousness and work towards it and its feasibility, and they would fund the process.” “There is a great understanding both in Burundi, the region and the international community that the war in Burundi has to come to an end,” Van Eck said. “Some of the rebel leaders would want a ceasefire even now, but would have a problem in convincing some of their followers who believe they can fight and win the war.”