ANGOLA: Government offensive postponed, analysts

The Angolan government's expected dry season offensive against the UNITA rebel movement has been delayed for a month, according to regional security analysts.

"The new military equipment hasn't yet arrived from the Ukraine and Russia so it's been postponed until the end of June, beginning of July," the security sources told IRIN.

The offensive, code named Operacio Cacimbo (fog), is aimed at UNITA's central highlands strongholds. The prize for a re-equipped Angolan army would be UNITA's headquarters at Andulo, 500 km southeast of the capital Luanda. The government has failed twice to take Andulo since the resumption of the civil war in December.

Meanwhile, behind-the-scenes diplomatic initiatives are underway to resolve the conflict. UNITA has complimented its generally successful military campaign with repeated offers of talks. But Luanda has reportedly rejected separate initiatives by OAU Secretary-General Salim Ahmed Salim and European Union special representative Aldo Ajello to convene a meeting between Foreign Minister Joao Miranda and UNITA's secretary-general Paulo
Lukamba Gato.

With the government's offensive widely believed to be doomed to failure - due partly to low troop morale - and a financial crisis looming as a result of a funding crunch, "ultimately somebody is going to have to talk to them [UNITA]," one analyst said. However, the "demonisation" of UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi by the official media would make that process all the harder, he added.

Angola's return to civil war followed UNITA's failure to abide by a UN-monitored peace agreement. Regional observers believe Savimbi is seeking either a more advantageous renegotiation of the 1994 Lusaka peace accord or the permanent partition of the country.