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Spurious exemptions, one-sided Ukraine talks, and a busy AU summit: The Cheat Sheet

A weekly read to keep you in the loop on humanitarian issues.

Louise O'Brien/TNH

Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe.

On our radar

What good is a Trump waiver if the money doesn’t flow? 

Aid groups have been contorting themselves to decypher and fit into the vague “humanitarian exemptions” glued on to US President Donald Trump’s aid freeze. It’s becoming clearer, however, how little those exemptions have mattered – if they were designed to at all – amid a full system shutdown. There were nominal exemptions for food assistance early on, but food doesn’t deliver itself (especially when $489 million worth of it was stuck in ports, as the now-fired inspector general for USAID noted). The UN’s refugee agency, UNHCR, has about $700 million in US funding it has been told not to spend, agency boss Filippo Grandi told staff during a 6 February town hall meeting. The Norwegian Refugee Council, one of many organisations mulling or starting layoffs, has “millions of dollars in outstanding payment requests” pending, the NGO said. US funding for parts of its PEPFAR HIV/AIDS programme should be covered by exemptions, but the funding is still frozen in practice (see the Kenya entry below). The list goes on. This leaves a giant asterisk beside the 13 February news that a US district court judge had issued a temporary restraining order – essentially ordering Trump to lift aid suspensions for assistance the US was committed to before he took office on 20 January. It’s unclear if Trump and his allies will comply. Documents filed as part of that lawsuit – one of several pushing back against Trump’s moves – show USAID contracts continue to be terminated or frozen en masse even as the legal cases build. Meanwhile, US-funded aid – from South Sudan to Myanmar, or Somalia to Syria – continues to stall.

The US aid freeze has exposed the fragility of a multilateral system so dependent on one country. What comes next? Join us for a 19 February conversation that seeks clarity and ideas amid the chaos.

Trump rushes to end Ukraine war, but not on Ukraine’s terms

Following repeated claims that he could end the war in Ukraine in one day, Trump announced on the eve of a major security conference in Germany that he was starting talks with Russia to end the three-year war. Trump held separate phone calls – first with Russian President Vladimir Putin and then with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. European leaders expressed alarm that Trump had upended a years-long policy of isolating Putin. They were even more dismayed that his administration was launching what appeared to be unilateral negotiations conceding from the offset that Ukraine would probably not be admitted to the NATO military alliance or be restored to its pre-war borders. Zelenskyy, meanwhile, demanded that peace talks include Ukrainian and European representatives and told the Munich Security Conference he didn’t see a “ready US plan” to end the war. Russia controls a large swathe of eastern Ukraine, while Ukrainian forces occupy a much smaller area in Russia’s western Kursk region. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shocked European leaders in a 12 February speech by insisting that Europe was responsible for defending Ukraine – without US or NATO support.

No end in sight to conflict escalation in eastern DR Congo

Rwanda-backed M23 fighters are seizing new territory in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo as the government in Kinshasa doubles down on its refusal to negotiate, even as the rebels have taken full control of Goma, the largest city in the east. African leaders had called for a ceasefire at a summit last week that Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi attended by video. But the M23 has continued its offensive in recent days, seizing new towns and a key airport outside the city of Bukavu, which is another major eastern city. Other countries in the region are busy sending reinforcements to DRC as they back rival sides in the conflict, which increasingly resembles the multi-country wars of the 1990s and early 2000s. Elsewhere in DRC, several other armed groups are also causing havoc. In northeastern Ituri province, an attack by CODECO fighters reportedly killed over 50 people on 10 February. For the latest, read: Aid efforts hamstrung in Goma as the M23 tightens control.

Gaza hostage release goes down to the wire

The Hamas-Israel ceasefire nearly collapsed over the course of this week, but by the time Cheat Sheet went to press a return to all-out war in Gaza may have been averted, at least for now. Hamas said on 11 February that it was postponing the release of three hostages – planned for 15 February in exchange for Palestinian prisoners in Israel – because of what it said were Israeli violations of the deal, including preventing civilians from returning to north Gaza and blocking aid. Trump then warned that “all hell is going to break out” if Hamas did not release “all” hostages, muddying the waters about how many hostages Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government expected to see freed by the midday 15 February deadline (76 remain in Gaza, although it is not clear how many are alive). A flurry of diplomatic activity followed, with Egyptian and Qatari mediators leading talks in Cairo that reportedly focused on Israel allowing caravans, tents, fuel, medical supplies, and heavy machinery into Gaza. By 14 February, Hamas said it was committed to the truce and planned to release the hostages (now named) as scheduled following the “removal of obstacles”. For more on the situation on the ground in the enclave, watch this latest video from Gaza-based journalist Maha Hussaini:

African leaders meet as crises multiply

This year’s African Union summit comes at a particularly torrid time for the continent. There’s the region-shaking conflict in eastern Congo; the humanitarian fallout of Sudan’s disastrous civil war; and the diplomatic dilemma posed by the rash of Sahelian coups. The International Crisis Group counts at least five more “priorities”. The summit, held on 15-16 February, will elect a new AU chair to try to navigate peacemaking efforts over the next four years, replacing the outgoing Moussa Faki Mahamat, widely panned for mismanaging the Sudan file. Three candidates are in the running, none of whom have evoked much enthusiasm. That’s especially bad news in this climate of global disorder, not to mention waning faith in the AU as an effective institution. It’s a far cry from the optimism of the early 2000s, when progressive leaders from South Africa, Nigeria, and Ethiopia were driving AU reforms. (See our latest stories on DR Congo).

WFP worker dies in Houthi custody

Ahmed Ba’alawi, a World Food Programme staff member in Yemen, died in Houthi detention about three weeks after being arrested. The UN announced his death on 11 February, less than a day after pausing operations in Saada governorate, where six UN workers were arrested in late January. UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the death and called for an investigation and accountability for those responsible. Dozens of UN, NGO, civil society, and diplomatic staff remain in Houthi custody. Some have been detained for several years, but most since sweeping crackdowns in June 2024 and this January. Save the Children staff member Hisham Al-Hakimi died in detention in October 2023. Two detained educators died in March and October 2024. Experts say the Houthis are targeting staff from organisations they seek to control, either for ideological reasons, or because they are sources of international funds that the movement can exploit.

In case you missed it

BANGLADESH: After an investigation by its rights office, the UN says former Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina and her government used tactics that could amount to “crimes against humanity” in response to the protests that prompted her to flee to India last August.

CLIMATE CRISIS: Almost all signatory nations missed a UN deadline for setting their new climate targets for 2035. Amongst the 195 signatories of the Paris Agreement, only 13 published their plans for slashing emissions ahead of the 10 February deadline. An even lower number (5) published their pledges the last time around, in 2020.

HAITI: Haiti recorded a staggering 1,000% rise in sexual violence against children between 2023 and 2024, according to the UN. Armed groups are inflicting “unimaginable horrors”, including gang rape, abduction, and forced recruitment on many of the over one million children estimated to live in areas under their control or influence, it said.

KENYA: Some 1.3 million HIV+ Kenyans could lose access to US government-funded medicines despite being covered by exemptions to Trump’s USAID stop-work order. A shutdown of payment systems means many of the agency’s contractors, including Kenyan distributors, cannot continue their work.

LEBANON: Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has formed a government of 24 ministers. With its acceptance by President Joseph Aoun, the country now has its first government since 2022 (the previous cabinet was acting in a caretaker capacity). The cabinet now must draft a policy statement and pass a vote of confidence from parliament. For a different take on the turbulent political and economic times Lebanese people have been living through, even before the recent conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, read WhatsApp Lebanon.

LIBYA: Libyan authorities announced they had found two mass graves in the country’s southeast, blaming smuggling gangs for the torture and inhumane treatment of migrants. The UN’s migration agency, IOM, said one grave may hold as many as 70 bodies, some of which bore gunshot wounds.

MYANMAR/ARGENTINA: An Argentinian court has requested arrest warrants for the leader of Myanmar’s military government, Min Aung Hlaing, for mass killings and rapes of Rohingya civilians in 2017. In total, 23 military officials, including several with command responsibility, are wanted for genocide, torture, aggravated murder, and sexual abuse. Under the principle of universal jurisdiction, such crimes can be investigated in any country regardless of where they were actually committed. The decision comes just months after the International Criminal Court requested its own arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing.

SUDAN: The paramilitary-turned-rebel Rapid Support Forces is once again attacking Zam Zam displacement camp, where famine was declared last year. Fighters stormed the camp – the largest in Sudan – on 11 February, leading to reports of mass casualties and multiple warnings that there is risk of genocidal RSF violence.

UGANDA: Nine Ebola cases have been confirmed, with 265 additional people being monitored under quarantine. There has so far been only one fatality, a nurse, since the outbreak of the Sudan strain of the highly contagious virus was declared on 30 January.

WHO: Budget questions hung over recently wrapped executive board meetings as the World Health Organization mulled over how to replace US funding in the short-term – and build more sustainable finances beyond today’s Trump crisis. One proposal would increase countries’ fees. WHO is also floating the idea of a $50 billion endowment fund, and previously launched an investment round focused on private donors and countries.


Weekend listen

Power Shift | Can dialogue truly shift power? 

‘People need to be listened to, and when they come in with their own stories, that is a form of power.’

Power Shift’s first episode sets the stage by highlighting the costs of power inequalities in humanitarian response, and whether dialogue can be a solution. 

And finally…

Palestinian-owned bookshop shrugs off Israeli raid

Israeli police raided two branches of a renowned bookshop in occupied East Jerusalem early this week, seizing books and arresting the owner and his nephew. Mahmoud and Ahmed Muna were accused of selling books that incite terrorism, and later charged with disturbing public order. The family-owned Educational Bookshop is a Jerusalem landmark and cultural hub, and publishers, academics, and rights groups came out to protest and support the Munas and their shop. The rights watchdog B’Tselem said in a statement that “the attempt to crush the Palestinian people includes the harassment and arrest of intellectuals… Israel must immediately release [Mahmoud and Ahmed Muna] from detention and stop persecuting Palestinian intellectuals”. The Munas were held for two nights and released on five days' house arrest, but the family re-opened the shop even before that. “They want to make us afraid. Not just us, they want to send a message to all Palestinian people,” said Morad Muna, Mahmoud’s brother. He said the re-opening was “the best reaction that we can do to such a situation”.

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