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Lula ‘scared’ of post-election violence in Venezuela

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has expressed concern over threats of post-election violence made by his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro, who opinion polls favour to lose to Edmundo González in Sunday’s pivotal presidential ballot.

Maduro has become increasingly authoritarian since replacing the late Hugo Chávez as Venezuelan leader in 2013, while presiding over an economic collapse and humanitarian crisis that has seen one in four Venezuelans flee the country since 2015.

The Venezuelan leader has repeatedly suggested during campaign speeches that if he loses the election it could lead to violence, and on Monday Lula told journalists: “I was scared by Maduro’s statements that if he loses the election, there will be a bloodbath.”

Maduro warned during a recent campaign rally in the capital, Caracas, that the election outcome will determine the country's future, “whether it becomes a peaceful Venezuela or a convulsed, violent, and conflict-ridden Venezuela: peace or war.”

“Venezuela’s fate in the 21st century depends on our victory on July 28,” he added. “If they do not want Venezuela to become a bloodbath, a fratricidal civil war produced by the fascists, let us guarantee the greatest success, the greatest electoral victory of our people.”

Maduro’s first re-election in 2018 was widely considered fraudulent, with many opposition candidates barred from running and a record low turnout of 32.3%.

This time around, despite allowing an opposition figure to run against him for the first time in a decade, his administration has been accused of arresting and persecuting dozens of people linked to González’s campaign as well as other opponents, including María Corina Machado, who easily won the opposition primary and was considered Maduro’s main challenger.

Maduro also faces accusations of manipulating the electoral process, and heavily restricting diaspora voting, which many believe would favour González.

Polls place Maduro’s support at 27% compared to 50% for González's, but many observers expect the president will try to cling to power, if only to avoid arrest over alleged abuses and corruption. Some suggest there is a thin path to a peaceful transition if US sanctions are lifted, international criminal investigations into Maduro are halted, and some kind of immunity or amnesty is offered.

For more background on Venezuelan hopes and fears, read: