Food prices soar, pasture runs out and conflict looms as 1.1 million go hungry

Food prices are soaring and precious cattle are dying in Mali as a result of drought and locust damage to crops and pasture. The government has called for urgent food aid to help 1.1 million vulnerable people, most of whom live on the southern fringes of the Sahara desert. But aid officials say the international response from donors has far been disappointing. And the French charity Action Against Hunger (ACF) has warned that conflict over scarce water and pasture could soon break out between local farmers and nomadic herdsmen, many of whom have driven their cattle into eastern Mali from neighbouring Niger and Burkina Faso. A government study conducted earlier this year concluded that those at risk of famine lived in 101 administrative districts situated along the 15th parallel and in the semi-arid lands to the north of this line running from Kayes in the west, through Mopti on the Niger river in central Mali to Gao, near the eastern border with Niger. "Unless bold decisions are taken quickly, the nutritional state of the population will deteriorate," Mary Diallo, director of the government's early warning unit, told IRIN. "We reckon there is already a malnutrition rate of more than 40 percent in the north of the country," he said, adding that the European Union had agreed to finance a new study of conditions there. Oxfam is also sounding alarm bells about the situation in the remote region north of the Niger bend, where it aims to help 50,000 people by August. Nick Ireland, an Oxfam official based at the organisation's regional headquarters in Dakar, said: "In the north we found quite shocking signs of malnutrition and we are urging Action Contre La Faim (ACF) and the (UN)World Food Programme to go there and make their own studies." Ireland said isolated herding communities had clustered around remote wells in a desperate bid to save their animals, unaware of the possibility of outside food assistance. Oxfam reported in May that infant mortality had reached record levels among the pastoralist communities of northern Mali. "One family in five has lost a child in the last six months," it noted. Food shortages are a perennial problem in impoverished Mali, where subsistence farmers typically endure a belt-tightening lean period from July until the new harvest starts in September at the end of the rainy season. But this year is shaping up to be particularly difficult and the lean season has struck early. The Agriculture Ministry estimated in March that grain production fell to 2.8 million tonnes last year from 3.3 million in 2003. And Diallo, at the early warning unit in the president's office, predicted that between 10 and 15 percent of Mali's cattle would die this year from thirst or lack of pasture. "We have a problem of overgrazing and food security in areas such as the valley of the river Niger which has attracted cattle and goats from Niger and Burkina Faso," he said. "These herds are stuck there. They can't turn round and go home because all the watering holes on the way have dried up." ACF confirmed this. It said in a report made available to IRIN that Peul and Tamasheq nomads had been bringing large herds of zebu cattle into the Gourma region of southeastern Mali since December. Gourma region lies to the south of Timbuktu and Gao on the Niger river and is bordered to the south by Burkina Faso and to the east by Niger. "It is certain that a significant number of these animals will die and that conflicts can be envisaged," ACF warned. "It is unlikely that the areas they have gone into will be able to provide water and pasture for all these animals, which number several hundred thousand." Reflecting ACF's fears that conflicts could develop with local Malian communities, Diallo warned of a "a large-scale crisis" unless these nomads returned soon to their countries of origin. But Pedro Recalde, the representative of the UN World Food Programme (WFP) in Mali, said the situation could still be saved by good early rainfall. "If the rains are abundant, the grass will grow and the reappearance of pasture will allow the herds to move," he said. Diallo said an early end to the rainy season last year had stunted Mali's pastures and prevented the Niger river and its tributaries from bursting their banks and innundating the flood plains where rice is normally planted. "The locusts did less damage than the lack of rainfall," he said. "Grazing land didn't get enough moisture and rice production, which usually amounts to about 900,000 tonnes per year, fell sharply." The Inter-State Committee for Fighting Drought in the Sahel (CILSS), which undertakes annual crop assessments in West Africa in conjuction with the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and WFP, reported in May that harvests in southern Mali were generally good last year and that the nation as a whole should have a 422,000 tonne food surplus. But soaring grain prices across the country tell a very different story. Market traders in the capital Bamako say food prices have doubled over the past 12 months. A 100kg sack of millet - enough to feed an average family for three weeks - now sells for 20,000 CFA francs (US $32), up from 10,000 ($16)at the same time last year. And rice has more than doubled in price to 500 CFA ($1) from 232 CFA (46 US cents) 12 months ago. By the end of May, the government of Mali had distributed 18,000 tonnes of maize, millet and sorghum from its food reserves to feed hungry people in the most needy areas. It distributed 9,000 tonnes in May alone. But Diallo warned that even allowing for financial reserves which could be used to buy in more grain, there was simply not enough left to go round. WFP has appealed to donors for US $7.4 million to provide additional food aid for Mali, but Recalde said that so far only $3.0 million had been received. This year's rainy season has begun well with several heavy downpours in May and early June, but Diallo warned that any shortfall would push the entire country into a food crisis. "If we don't get good rains, we will be in an emergency situation and people on the 12th, 13th and 14th parallels will be affected," he said ACF is particularly concerned about the present situation around Timbuktu, Kidal and Gao in the northeast, where it reckons that 48 percent of last year's harvest was lost.