Uneven rainfall lowers harvest expectations

Poor and erratic rainfall is expected to jeopardise Zambia's prospects of yet another bumper maize harvest, a senior official warned on Friday. "We are being quite cautious this year because rains in the southern and western parts of the country have not been conducive to high yields - it looks as if we must expect a lower crop output compared to last year," Sam Mundia, permanent secretary in the ministry of agriculture, told IRIN. After a failed harvest left an estimated 2.3 million in need of food aid in 2002, Zambia has recorded significant maize harvests for the past two years. In 2004 it had more than enough to meet domestic consumption requirements of less than 1.2 million mt of the staple food and exported the surplus to neighbours. Mundia explained that the government would consider suspending maize exports, depending on the results of a crop assessment expected in early March. "Right now, we do not have a definite figure of the expected output or the number of people who may be affected, but we can say that we are prepared to deal with the situation. There are ample stocks in the Food Reserve Agency to tide us over and support those in food insecure areas," he noted. According to a recent Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS NET) assessment, overall rainfall this season was adequate for crop development in most areas, with the exception of the southwestern parts of the country, where prolonged dry spells have resulted in reduced plantings and crop failure. However, the early warning unit was optimistic that there were still prospects for recovery.