Good harvest expected if the rains oblige

Zambia could expect a good harvest this year but much depends on continued rains, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) said in its latest monthly report. Although current growing conditions were generally fair to good throughout the country, farmers were concerned about the two-week dry spell in the first part of February. However, rains had resumed since mid-February and, if they continued through March and early April, crop output was expected to be good. FEWSNET highlighted that even the typically drought-prone southern half of the country had received enough rain for a decent harvest, "notwithstanding below-normal cumulative rainfall for the season". There were also reports that green maize has been making it onto the market in increasing amounts since early February, FEWSNET noted. "If this early maize is any indication, along with the current crop conditions and the rainfall situation, Zambia is likely to produce a fairly good harvest this season, provided that the rains continue into April, [when the rainy season ends]." Given the good rains, crop yields would have benefited from appropriate applications of fertiliser, but government-subsidised fertiliser arrived late. "Ideally, the commodity should have been with farmers by the end of December, allowing them to apply it in January. However, most target farmers only started receiving the fertiliser in mid-February and even then the amounts received have been considered inadequate," FEWSNET explained. The early warning agency recommended that planning for the 2004/05 marketing season should start as soon as possible, and the government should release funds for a crop forecast exercise scheduled to take place in mid-March. "Making appropriate estimates regarding crop production and marketable surpluses is particularly critical this season, because most of the other Southern African countries expect reduced output this year, and the demand for maize is likely to be high," FEWSNET said. It also suggested that the government work closely with local communities and NGOs in areas that still required food aid, in order to target only those who could not afford maize.