Cereal harvest "generally favourable" - FAO

The outlook for Southern Africa's cereal harvest is "generally favourable" with the exception of Zimbabwe, where production is expected to fall for the third consecutive year, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said in a report released on Wednesday. Despite a delay to the start of the rains across the subregion in the first half of the season, abundant rains since mid-February have improved crop conditions and preliminary FAO forecasts point to an aggregate maize output of 14.8 million mt, slightly higher than last year's average level. FAO estimates the aggregate cereal import requirement for marketing year 2003/04 at 5.3 million mt, some 27 percent below last year. Commercial imports are estimated at 4.6 million mt, leaving a food aid requirement of 700,000 mt. In Zimbabwe, however, insufficient and erratic rains, coupled with further planting reductions in the commercial sector, are likely to once again drive down production. In the main maize growing areas of the north, rains are believed to have arrived too late to prevent significant yield reductions, and in the southern and western areas were insufficient. A serious shortage of agricultural inputs also contributed to the expected drop in the harvest, FAO said. In the smallholder sector, maize plantings are estimated to be nine percent lower than last year, while in the commercial sector only 15,000 hectares of maize were planted compared to 62,000 hectares the previous year. "The food situation remains extremely tight in both rural and urban areas," the FAO report, "Food Supply Situation and Crop Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa", noted. In Zambia, maize prices have fallen since January, reflecting the good harvest prospects and improved maize supply, and are now below their levels at the same time last year. While formal commercial maize imports amounted to only 60,000 mt against an import requirement of 301,000 mt, a large part of the food gap "appears to have been filled by informal imports from Tanzania and Mozambique", estimated in the range 60,000 to 300,000 mt. Official production forecasts for Malawi point to a maize crop of 1.9 million mt, higher than last year's harvest of 1.55 million mt. Better input availability was a major contributing factor, FAO said. There was a considerable expansion of the government's free input distribution programme, which targeted close to three million households against 1.8 million last year, complemented by distributions from NGOs and improved market supplies. However, there is "serious concern" that large amounts of carry-over stocks, together with the expected good harvest, are likely to depress prices in 2003/04, adversely affecting plantings in the next season. In Mozambique, despite a forecast six percent rise in cereal production for 2003 at the national level, the harvest is estimated to be sharply reduced for the fourth consecutive year in the southern provinces of Gaza, Maputo and Inhambane and parts of the central region. Protracted food assistance will be needed in these areas, where the number of vulnerable people requiring food assistance is already estimated at 660,000, FAO stated. Overall prospects for the 2003 cereal harvest are also favourable in Lesotho, with crops reported in good condition in most areas of the country. In Swaziland, harvest prospects are favourable in the Highveld and satisfactory in the Middleveld and Plateau, but very poor in the Lowveld where severe dry weather and high temperatures early in the season destroyed the maize crop on a large scale. "It is estimated that up to 85 percent of the farmers in the Lowveld will not harvest any maize at all. Food assistance will be necessary in marketing year 2003/04 (April/March) for farm families in this region," FAO cautioned. From February, abundant rains in Namibia led to the recovery of the 2003 cereal crops, mainly millet. The rains also improved grazing conditions for livestock. The overall harvest outlook is satisfactory, FAO said, but in the northeastern Caprivi region is expected to be reduced again. Dry weather necessitated replantings of the maize crop up to four times, and shortages of seeds and the poor condition of oxen at the beginning of the season led to reductions in the planted area. At the national level preliminary official production forecasts point to a cereal crop of 119,000 mt, substantially higher than last year's poor harvest of 74,000 mt and above the average of the past five years. However, in the Caprivi, "the food supply situation is likely to remain difficult in the region in 2003/04 (May/April). Close monitoring of the food situation is, therefore, required in the worst affected areas, where food shortages may develop later in the year." A severe drought in the southern areas of Madagascar has resulted in a sharply reduced harvest of the main maize crop. Around 600,000 people in five districts are estimated to be in immediate need of food aid. WFP has targeted 175,000 for assistance but due to insufficient contributions is currently assisting only 55,000, the report said. In the worst affected areas 30 percent of children are showing signs of moderate to severe malnutrition and the numbers are on the increase. Migration to other areas in search of food and water has also been reported. The government plans to sell subsidised maize in the affected districts. "There is urgent need for additional food aid pledges from the international community to avert a worsening of the nutritional situation in southern Madagascar, particularly in view of considerable delays in moving food to remote areas because of the poor conditions of infrastructure," FAO warned. In Angola, the outlook for the 2003 cereal harvest is favourable, reflecting adequate rains and an increase in the area planted following the end of the civil war. But large numbers of vulnerable people still need emergency food assistance. Against WFP requirements of 137,000 mt of food aid until the end of 2003, pledges are only sufficient until July. There is thus urgent need of additional contributions, said FAO.