Poor rains raise concerns over next harvest

Farmers and food security specialists in Southern Africa are increasingly concerned that the lack of rain during the current planting season could mean another bad harvest for the region next year. Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Lesotho and Swaziland already have more than 14 million people in need of food aid after poor harvests at the beginning of this year. Desperate farmers, many of whom will use donated seed and fertiliser, are pinning their hopes of recovery on next year's crops, but so far rainfall figures have been worryingly low. According to the latest Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) drought and flood hazards assessment, most of the region has only recorded between 1 and 10 mm of rain with "substantially inhibited" rainfall over portions of South Africa, Zimbabwe and central to southern Mozambique. This includes South Africa's maize triangle, which usually supplies surrounding countries and contributes to relief agencies' stocks. But so far there had not been enough rain to plant the important crops of maize, wheat, sunflower, sorghum and soya in South Africa. "There has been no planting in the western Transvaal region and planting in the east was weakened by poor rains," Fanie Brink, deputy general manager of Grain SA told IRIN on Tuesday. "We are worried about the situation, although there is still time in December to plant," he said. While northern Mozambique had received rain and made preparations ahead of its flood season, rainfall in northern Sofala and southern Zambezia in central Mozambique had been low throughout November and agricultural concerns loomed, the report said. "It's not good for next year, it could be potentially very bad," said Owen Calvert, World Food Programme (WFP) vulnerability analysis and mapping consultant in Mozambique. "The areas hit are in the southern and central maize production areas. Farmers sometimes try to replant their crops if they fail, but then they have to hope that the season is long enough for the crops to reach full maturity," he said. "We've been monitoring the rains for the last two to three weeks and we're concerned that these areas are showing up on satellite images as areas which are not going to get much in the next 10 days." In Malawi, where President Bakili Muluzi declared a disaster earlier this year, there were similar concerns, with farmers only receiving rain during the last week of November. "We still have the first half of December to plant and after that it will be too late," said WFP spokesman in Malawi, Abdelgadi Musallam. Predictions from the South African Weather Service were equally grim. "Rainfall is definitely going to be below normal so the prospects for this season are not good," Shaumani Mugeri, a meteorologist at the weather service, told IRIN. "What aggravates the matter is we do have an El Nino in the region, even though it is moderate, and it is going to have an impact on us." Mugeri said worried farmers were calling in daily hoping for better news, but predictions were that the poor conditions would last until March, right through the crucial growing period. Richard Lee, WFP regional spokesman said: "We are concerned about this rainy season and are hoping the rains will be good because we clearly need as good a harvest as possible to get Southern Africa through this crisis."