Troop build-up as spectre of civil war looms

There was a steady build-up of soldiers in two of Madagascar's provincial towns on Thursday as president Marc Ravalomanana reiterated his intention to take military action if the blockade of the capital, Antananarivo, was not dismantled within four days.

Aid agencies told IRIN that the southern town of Tulear, and Mahajanga in the north were "extremely tense" as armed forces seem to prepare for what is expected to be a crucial showdown between Ravalomanana's men and backers of former president Didier Ratsiraka.

Ravalomanana's minister of defence, Gen Jules Mamizara told the local daily newspaper L'Express on Thursday that "if any military do not obey orders by Sunday, the rebels or mutineers will be pursued and fought".

IRIN has learnt that for "security reasons," the Tulear airport, which has served as an alternative to the main airport in Antananarivo, has been shut down.

Meanwhile, over the past 10 days Prime Minister Jacques Sylla visited several cities in the provinces of Tamatave, Mahajanga and Fianarantsoa in an attempt to shore up support in territories believed to be pro-Ratsiraka.

"Sylla's visit is particularly brave, especially at this time. Ratsiraka has a lot of support in those cities, but perhaps it is a good political strategy to win more support for the new government," Madeleine Ramaholimihaso, who headed the consortium of civil society organisations that supervised the December presidential poll, told IRIN.

Regional political analyst Benedicte Goderiaux added: "It seems that the military option is increasingly considered, particularly regarding re-establishing authority in the provinces on the part of the new government, where the rule of law has been disregarded."

On Tuesday the French news agency AFP reported that Ratsiraka's supporters had blown up a bridge on the road leading from the capital to the northwestern port of Mahajanga. It is the eighth bridge to have been destroyed in Madagascar.

Both Mahajanga and Tamatave have been the scene of fresh clashes in recent weeks. A roadblock in Brickaville, on the road to
Tamatave, is one of the lynchpins of the blockade and is heavily guarded by pro-Ratsiraka forces.

Tamatave, the seat of the parallel government set up by Ratsiraka in February, was the hardest hit by cyclone Kenisy which passed over northern Madagascar two weeks ago.

A UN Development Programme report said that while the electricity supply had been restored in many areas, the water system was not fully functional.

The report added that medicines for malaria and diarrhoea treatment were badly needed, as well as water treatment products.

The European Union has also pledged US $1 million for the reconstruction of bridges destroyed in the floods. However the report added, "this amount is subjected to the unhindered movement of personnel and goods throughout Madagascar".

The ongoing political crisis has hampered the work of aid agencies in the country.

"Both regions [Tamatave and Antsiranana] visited have declared independence and are out of the control of the central government. This makes response, coordination and accountability very difficult and or impossible," the report read.

The government of Madagascar has not declared a state of emergency nor appealed for international emergency relief.

Meanwhile, a diplomatic source in Antananarivo said that Ravalomanana was consulting political parties that supported him in the 16 December presidential poll, "in order to decide whether to attend or not new political talks in Dakar".

While the crisis continues, the lack of essentials has become critical. On Thursday a local gas company came to the rescue of residents in the capital. Vitogas announced it would sell 40 mt of gas at a reduced price. Gas has disappeared from the market since February.

The blockade was erected around the country by Ratsiraka's backers to stop vital supplies reaching Antananarivo after Ravalomanana declared himself president in February, saying he had been cheated of victory in a December election by vote-rigging.