Situation remains "tense"

It is unlikely that Madagascar's military would back the ousting of President Didier Ratsiraka by rival Marc Ravalomanana, diplomatic sources told IRIN on Thursday.

Ravalomanana, who claims he won presidential elections in December, had announced to supporters this week that he would assume power on Friday, 22 February. On Thursday it was not clear whether he intended to go through with this plan.

The mayor of the capital Antananarivo believes he won the December elections by more than 50 percent and should be inaugurated president, despite a High Court ruling that he must face the incumbent in a run-off poll. His supporters have shut down the capital city in a three week old general strike.

UN Development Programme Resident Representative in Antananarivo, Adama Guindo, told IRIN that the situation was tense and uncertain. "Things change so fast, nobody is sure" whether or not Ravalomanana will go ahead with his threat to assume power on Friday.

Said Guindo: "Ratsiraka has warned that it (Ravalomanana's plan to proclaim himself head of state) is illegal and un-constitutional. The military say they are neutral, but at the same time they warn that they will protect the institutions of Madagascar."

This makes it likely they would act against any extra-legal attempt by Ravalomanana to gain the presidency.

With the international airport now operating again, the UN Children's Fund has been able to bring in polio, measles and other vaccines. But the situation with regard to other essential goods is uncertain.

"Right now there are no shortages (of food). There is still some fuel but for how long that will last we do not know," Guindo said. Fuel trucks have been unable to deliver fuel to the capital because the harbour has been blockaded during the general strike.

The Organisation of African Unity has appealed to both parties to go back to the negotiating table to resolve the dispute.