On Sunday, millions of Venezuelans will vote to pick their next president in a high-stakes election that polls suggest could see opposition candidate Edmundo González triumph over long-time leader Nicolás Maduro.
Tensions have risen as the day of the vote approaches. Many fear that even if he loses, Maduro, who has shown a more authoritarian streak in recent months, may seek to cling to power to avoid possible prosecution for alleged corruption and rights abuses.
During the campaign, Maduro has arrested more than 70 opponents, stated in a public event that he must win to prevent “a bloodbath”, and – days before the vote – blocked access to several news sites.
But that hasn't stopped María Corina Machado, the main leader of the opposition (barred by Maduro from running) from campaigning around the country. The opposition, often fractured in the past, has largely united this time behind González’s bid.
Machado has played a crucial role in the campaign, gaining support and drawing crowds even in areas previously considered Maduro strongholds, and in places far from the capital, Caracas.
Many Venezuelans hope this election will put an end to years of economic crisis and rampant inflation – not helped by foreign sanctions and global events – that have led to a lack of job opportunities and eroded basic services.
Combined with the collapse of the healthcare system, high levels of hunger, and increasing repression, conditions have driven nearly eight million Venezuelans – one in four of the population – to flee the country’s worsening humanitarian crisis since 2015.
For the first time in more than a decade, Venezuelans across the political spectrum sense the opposition has a chance to win, but given the uncertainty of what might happen even if that is the case, they are also worrying about what to do next.
While some plan to leave if Maduro stays in power, others are resigned to staying no matter what, while others still remain loyal to chavismo – the brand of left-wing populism named after Hugo Chávez, the late president who was Maduro’s mentor.
“I am tired of this, of the shortages, the violence… Everyone in my house is tired and we want this government to end now,” Georgina Davalillo, a veterinary assistant in the Chacao neighbourhood of Caracas, told The New Humanitarian. “The election is important because there is hope. There is a scent of change.”
Chavistas grow tired of the crisis
At 4pm on 17 July, Machado finally reached the opposition rally in Guanare, about 400 kilometres south of the capital. The sun was beating down hard, bringing temperatures up to 35 degrees Celsius, but the crowd was massive: It took Machado three hours to navigate her entourage down the two-kilometre avenue to the event venue.
Since April, Machado has campaigned across Venezuela, gathering significant support even in places historically dominated by chavismo.
Guanare, in the state of Portuguesa, in the heart of the country, is one such place.
The city still has a chavista mayor, but something has changed since Maduro won the 2018 election, which was largely seen as fraudulent. The people of Guanare have experienced the same ills afflicting nearly all Venezuelans: lack of gasoline and domestic gas, water service failures, and daily power cuts. This is why people are now filling the streets with no fear to receive Machado.
Eduardo Márquez is 40 years old and has spent his whole life in this city in the Venezuelan flatlands. Although he once supported Maduro, he said his government has disappointed him and that he is tired of the daily struggles. Like many others, he has to work several jobs to be able to make ends meet. He mostly does deliveries on his motorbike, but also takes odd jobs as a construction worker when there are vacancies.
“We are tired of all the lies. We want a change in Venezuela. We want a new mandate. We have already had 25 years of chavismo,” he said. “I have no other option for an income than working with my motorbike to be able to get some money to eat, because I don't get any [formal] work.”
Around him, dozens more motorbike drivers had gathered in support of the Venezuelan opposition.
“We must vote,” Márquez said. “If Maduro wins the elections, it would be terrible. We would have to sit down and cry because from then on we won't have any more opportunities [for change].”
The youth’s last chance
A political change that offers a brighter future is undoubtedly what most of the Venezuelan youth is hoping for. For the first time in decades, young Venezuelans have shown a strong determination to participate in the presidential elections and push for democratic change.
Samuel Bolivar is 21 years old. He lives in downtown Caracas and will vote for the first time on Sunday.
“I feel this is the last chance we have to get rid of this government. We have never been so close to winning. People are motivated, and if nothing happens I think it won't be worth staying,” he told The New Humanitarian during a students’ meeting in support of González on the Central University of Venezuela campus.
Bolivar says that if young people don't vote to stop Maduro from being re-elected, there will be a youth exodus.
Maduro has blamed the economic crisis on the sanctions imposed by the United States, but fewer and fewer people are willing to accept that it has had nothing to do with his governance, especially the younger population, who have only known life under chavismo and feel their opportunity to make a decent life is fading away.
According to the latest National Poll on Life Conditions (ENCOVI) conducted by three universities in Venezuela, in 2023, 31% of men between 12 and 17 dropped out of school to work, even as 19% women between 18 and 24 years of age gave up on education to take care of their children or the household.
Bolivar, who studies modern languages, said he will leave immediately if Maduro wins. But he held out some hope that he wouldn't need to.
Sarai Machado, a 19-year-old student of international studies at the Central University of Venezuela, also wants a political change, but unlike Bolivar she was not planning to move right away if González loses.
“I would finish the two years of studies I have left and then leave the country,” she said. “We need to move forward as a society. We need to move closer to democracy and improve as a country.”
Sarai said her whole family will vote on Sunday, including her grandmother who hasn’t cast a ballot in 20 years. “I hope the opposition wins,” she said. “I want everything to be calm and peaceful on that day.”
Waiting with several friends for Machado on Guanare’s main avenue on the day of the rally, Victor Rodríguez, a 16-year-old local teenager, said he wouldn’t think twice about leaving the country if Maduro wins.
“I would go through the Darién if necessary, but I will not spend my youth with Maduro as president,” he told The New Humanitarian.
In 2023, at least 328,000 Venezuelans – more than double the previous year – took the treacherous Darién Gap route to Central America; most of them trying to reach the United States.
“For me, this is [our] last chance,” he added. “Fortunately, I have family that went to the United States and Canada and they could receive me.”
A young teacher’s dilemma
Twenty-nine-year-old Ander De Tejada has lived in Caracas all his life. He studied social communication at the Central University of Venezuela, but discovered along the way that instead of doing journalism he wanted to work in academia.
He started teaching literature in 2022 and was one of the department’s youngest professors at the time. Working with other professors more experienced than him, he said, was particularly stimulating.
But perspectives became increasingly grey and the idea of leaving the country began to cross his mind. De Tejada's base salary as a part-time lecturer is just over $12 per month. With the food bonus he receives, his monthly income rises to $140, but that still isn't enough to make a decent living in Venezuela, where the basic food basket costs more than $550.
De Tejada started talking to other teachers about the opportunities he could have doing the same job abroad. His parents live in Spain and keep telling him to look for better opportunities outside of the country, but, despite his low wage, quitting a job he otherwise enjoys, is a hard choice for him.
“I was in that dilemma. Before the date of the elections was known, I was prowling around the idea of leaving the country,” he said. “I don't know what is going to happen, but what I do know is what it is like to live under Maduro's government. It is disillusioning to think of living another period with him ruling the country.”
Faced with this uncertainty, like millions of other Venezuelans, De Tejada said he planned a trip to visit his parents but can't decide yet whether he will return or not. “The result [of the election] will determine my stay in Venezuela,'' he said.
This will be De Tejada’s first time voting in a presidential election. In 2018, he decided not to cast a ballot because he didn’t feel represented by any of the candidates (many of the leading opposition candidates were barred from running).
The threat of a civil war
Historically, chavismo has always won presidential elections by a large margin. Only in 2013, after Chávez’s death, were the results tight, with Maduro gaining only about 200,000 votes more than his leading challenger, Henrique Capriles.
The situation appears different this time. Most polls give a resounding advantage to González, who leads them by an average of 20% over Maduro.
This has prompted Maduro to make what many consider to be threats, warning, for example, that if he is defeated, Venezuela will descend into a “fratricidal civil war”.
This message still resonates with some.
Seventy-five-year-old Ney Rubio has been a loyal chavista since the times of Chávez. He currently works as a volunteer in one of Maduro’s campaign hubs in Caracas and spends his days with other chavistas listening to music and handing out pamphlets.
Rubio's sons oppose the regime and have migrated, but that hasn't kept him from remaining loyal to chavismo.
“We are in a difficult scenario. If Maduro loses the elections in Venezuela, it will be a disaster,” he told The New Humanitarian. “The opposition has no influence on the armed forces, so how can they govern the country?”
The role the armed forces will play in this election is a big concern, as it will fall on them if Maduro loses to either ensure that results are respected or to enforce a new wave of repression.
Ever since Chávez took office in 1999, the armed forces have been the backbone of chavismo and have since acted as Maduro’s first line of defence. In return, the president has given high-ranking military officials control of key industries and 12 of the country's 34 ministries, while punishing soldiers who step out of line.
“The National Bolivarian Armed Forces support me because they are chavista,” Maduro said during a campaign event on 23 July.
But some experts say the opposition is drawing a growing number of low-ranking officers and conscripts, and both Machado and González have called on the military to respect the constitution and safeguard the results of Sunday’s election.
Because of his age, Rubio said he won’t migrate if chavismo is defeated, but will rather continue to defend Maduro's government and the legacy of Chávez.
“If Nicolás Maduro loses it will be by a very small margin and anything can happen,” he said. “Our people are unpredictable.”
Edited by Daniela Mohor.
