The authorities' use of force against anti-government protesters demanding the ouster of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh is thwarting mediation efforts and dialogue, observers warn, amid reports of defections by senior military commanders.
More than 80 people have reportedly been killed and hundreds more injured in nationwide protests since the first week of February. A 21 March statement by two opposition blocs denouncing a Saleh-imposed state of emergency, said the “Friday massacre” on 18 March at Sana’a University left some 52 protesters dead and more than 250 injured.
The news channel Al Jazeera reported on 21 March that the head of Yemen's Northwestern Military Zone, Maj Gen Ali Mohsen Saleh - reputedly a half-brother of the president - had declared his “peaceful support” for the protesters and was deploying his forces to protect them in the capital, Sana'a. The commander of the army's Eastern Division has also reportedly defected from the government’s side. The country has four regional military commands.
Initially, young protesters, backed by an opposition coalition of six major parties known as the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), were demanding that Saleh remove his relatives from key military and security posts before any dialogue with the government, said Abdullah al-Faqih, a political scientist at Sana’a University.
However, that changed after 18 March when so-called "pro-government snipers" fired at protesters from the rooftops of buildings in Sana’a.
"Now they [the opposition/protesters] are refusing any dialogue with the authorities after this massacre. They are demanding the ouster and trial of Saleh and his regime and relatives," Al-Faqih told IRIN.
Three hours after the attack, Saleh ordered the setting up of an investigation committee including the ministers of justice and human rights, the attorney-general and the state lawyer, with a further three members to be selected by JMP.
"Regretfully, what happened foiled a planned mediation by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. After the investigation, the perpetrators will be referred to court for trial," Saleh told a press conference just hours after the attack.
Reacting to what he called "ceaseless violence against protesters", Mohammed Abu Luhum, a senior official in the ruling General People’s Congress party resigned from his post and withdrew an offer he made on 17 March to mediate between the ruling party and JMP-backed protesters.
Abu Luhum had suggested that in return for a suspension of the protests, Saleh remove his relatives from key security and military posts, ask parliament to draw up a new constitution within 40 days, supervise presidential elections before the end of 2011, and hand over power to his successor within the first quarter of 2012.
"There can be no dialogue with an oppressive regime using excessive violence against peaceful demonstrators," Abu Luhum said.
Accusations traded
While JMP accuses the government of using security personnel, undercover officers and paid thugs to kill protesters, the latter accuses the JMP of passing arms to protesters and encouraging them to storm nearby houses.
"This is part of a criminal plan to kill off the protesters, and the president and his relatives are responsible for the bloodshed in Yemen these days," Mohammed al-Sabri, a JMP spokesman said.
The Interior Ministry, however, said it received information that JMP members were handing guns to protesters to fight local residents and shopkeepers who were not allowing then to erect tents near their premises.
"Recurrent casualties in front of Sana’a University are the result of sporadic confrontations between protesters and residents in the area, who mostly have small arms such as AK-47 rifles and pistols," Interior Minister Mutahar Rashad al-Masri told IRIN.
He said the protesters were attacking nearby houses, intimidating women and children and stealing items such as blankets, curtains and mattresses.
“Fluid” situation
There have been a string of resignations from the government and ruling party in protest at the violence against the protesters, including Huda al-Ban, minister of human rights; Nabil al-Faqih, minister of tourism; and Hamoud al-Hitar, minister of religious guidance and endowment.
Saleh then dismissed his entire cabinet on 20 March, but asked members to stay on until a new cabinet is appointed. The move was described by observers as a tactic to stop further cabinet resignations.
Most of those who resign from the government or the ruling party immediately declare their support for what they call the "Youth Revolution", and go to their own tribal areas to mobilize their followers to join the protests.
Meanwhile, Saleh is holding daily meetings with “loyal” tribal sheikhs, said Omar al-Asbahi, a political analyst.
"The situation is fluid. It may lead the country to a civil war due to Yemen's tribal nature and the widespread availability of small and medium-sized arms. There are an estimated 60 million weapons for a population of 23 million," he told IRIN.
Tribal leaders were previously trying to help resolve the political crisis, but this is no longer the case. Some, inspired by the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, have sent their sons to camp out in Sana’a.
"Go ahead. Don't fear what happened to your brothers yesterday [protesters killed or injured on 18 March]… We will not leave this place unless we see Saleh and his regime stand trial," Sheikh Amin al-Ukaimi, a senior Bakil tribe leader, told protesters at Sana’a University on 19 March.
"Yemen will be the third country putting an end to oppression and enjoying freedom after Tunisia and Egypt."
Many of Yemen's northern tribes belong to one of two tribal confederations: the Bakil and the Hashid. The Bakil is Yemen's largest tribal confederation, but is historically not as well organized as the smaller but far more politically active Hashid confederation.
President Saleh’s Sanhan tribe belongs to the Hashid confederation. The Hashid are traditionally led by the influential al-Ahmar family. Two of the late Sheikh Abdullah Bin Hussein al-Ahmar sons - Hamid and Hussein - are currently the strongest opponents of Saleh’s rule. Many of the Bakil’s senior sheikhs - like Amin al-Ukaimi and Faris Manaa - are supporting the two sons against Saleh.
Anti-government protesters want an end to corruption, the delivery of jobs, a more equitable distribution of wealth, and the reform of a governmental system that presides over the worst development indicators in the Middle East. But given the tribal nature of Yemen politics and the large number of guns in private hands, a frequently voiced concern is that the country could descend into civil war under the pressure for change, adding to the country’s humanitarian burden.
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More than 80 people have reportedly been killed and hundreds more injured in nationwide protests since the first week of February. A 21 March statement by two opposition blocs denouncing a Saleh-imposed state of emergency, said the “Friday massacre” on 18 March at Sana’a University left some 52 protesters dead and more than 250 injured.
The news channel Al Jazeera reported on 21 March that the head of Yemen's Northwestern Military Zone, Maj Gen Ali Mohsen Saleh - reputedly a half-brother of the president - had declared his “peaceful support” for the protesters and was deploying his forces to protect them in the capital, Sana'a. The commander of the army's Eastern Division has also reportedly defected from the government’s side. The country has four regional military commands.
Initially, young protesters, backed by an opposition coalition of six major parties known as the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), were demanding that Saleh remove his relatives from key military and security posts before any dialogue with the government, said Abdullah al-Faqih, a political scientist at Sana’a University.
However, that changed after 18 March when so-called "pro-government snipers" fired at protesters from the rooftops of buildings in Sana’a.
"Now they [the opposition/protesters] are refusing any dialogue with the authorities after this massacre. They are demanding the ouster and trial of Saleh and his regime and relatives," Al-Faqih told IRIN.
Three hours after the attack, Saleh ordered the setting up of an investigation committee including the ministers of justice and human rights, the attorney-general and the state lawyer, with a further three members to be selected by JMP.
"Regretfully, what happened foiled a planned mediation by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. After the investigation, the perpetrators will be referred to court for trial," Saleh told a press conference just hours after the attack.
Reacting to what he called "ceaseless violence against protesters", Mohammed Abu Luhum, a senior official in the ruling General People’s Congress party resigned from his post and withdrew an offer he made on 17 March to mediate between the ruling party and JMP-backed protesters.
Abu Luhum had suggested that in return for a suspension of the protests, Saleh remove his relatives from key security and military posts, ask parliament to draw up a new constitution within 40 days, supervise presidential elections before the end of 2011, and hand over power to his successor within the first quarter of 2012.
"There can be no dialogue with an oppressive regime using excessive violence against peaceful demonstrators," Abu Luhum said.
Accusations traded
While JMP accuses the government of using security personnel, undercover officers and paid thugs to kill protesters, the latter accuses the JMP of passing arms to protesters and encouraging them to storm nearby houses.
"This is part of a criminal plan to kill off the protesters, and the president and his relatives are responsible for the bloodshed in Yemen these days," Mohammed al-Sabri, a JMP spokesman said.
 Go ahead. Don't fear what happened to your brothers yesterday… We will not leave this place unless we see Saleh and his regime stand trial
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"Recurrent casualties in front of Sana’a University are the result of sporadic confrontations between protesters and residents in the area, who mostly have small arms such as AK-47 rifles and pistols," Interior Minister Mutahar Rashad al-Masri told IRIN.
He said the protesters were attacking nearby houses, intimidating women and children and stealing items such as blankets, curtains and mattresses.
“Fluid” situation
There have been a string of resignations from the government and ruling party in protest at the violence against the protesters, including Huda al-Ban, minister of human rights; Nabil al-Faqih, minister of tourism; and Hamoud al-Hitar, minister of religious guidance and endowment.
Saleh then dismissed his entire cabinet on 20 March, but asked members to stay on until a new cabinet is appointed. The move was described by observers as a tactic to stop further cabinet resignations.
Most of those who resign from the government or the ruling party immediately declare their support for what they call the "Youth Revolution", and go to their own tribal areas to mobilize their followers to join the protests.
Meanwhile, Saleh is holding daily meetings with “loyal” tribal sheikhs, said Omar al-Asbahi, a political analyst.
"The situation is fluid. It may lead the country to a civil war due to Yemen's tribal nature and the widespread availability of small and medium-sized arms. There are an estimated 60 million weapons for a population of 23 million," he told IRIN.
Tribal leaders were previously trying to help resolve the political crisis, but this is no longer the case. Some, inspired by the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, have sent their sons to camp out in Sana’a.
"Go ahead. Don't fear what happened to your brothers yesterday [protesters killed or injured on 18 March]… We will not leave this place unless we see Saleh and his regime stand trial," Sheikh Amin al-Ukaimi, a senior Bakil tribe leader, told protesters at Sana’a University on 19 March.
"Yemen will be the third country putting an end to oppression and enjoying freedom after Tunisia and Egypt."
Many of Yemen's northern tribes belong to one of two tribal confederations: the Bakil and the Hashid. The Bakil is Yemen's largest tribal confederation, but is historically not as well organized as the smaller but far more politically active Hashid confederation.
President Saleh’s Sanhan tribe belongs to the Hashid confederation. The Hashid are traditionally led by the influential al-Ahmar family. Two of the late Sheikh Abdullah Bin Hussein al-Ahmar sons - Hamid and Hussein - are currently the strongest opponents of Saleh’s rule. Many of the Bakil’s senior sheikhs - like Amin al-Ukaimi and Faris Manaa - are supporting the two sons against Saleh.
Anti-government protesters want an end to corruption, the delivery of jobs, a more equitable distribution of wealth, and the reform of a governmental system that presides over the worst development indicators in the Middle East. But given the tribal nature of Yemen politics and the large number of guns in private hands, a frequently voiced concern is that the country could descend into civil war under the pressure for change, adding to the country’s humanitarian burden.
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This article was produced by IRIN News while it was part of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Please send queries on copyright or liability to the UN. For more information: https://shop.un.org/rights-permissions
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