Cairo, Sana’a cope with exploding populations

On the occasion of the internationally recognised World Population Day, commemorated Monday, several countries in the region – particularly Egypt and Yemen – are taking a closer look at the impediments to development caused by exploding populations. In Egypt, the issues involved are conveyed by the example of Mahrous Amin, 33, and his wife Awali, who left their village in the central region of Fayoum four months ago to look for work in the capital, Cairo. “We left Fayoum because the living conditions were too hard,” said Amin. His family owned no land, so he used to support them by fishing in a local reservoir and selling his catch to buy food and clothing. The oldest of ten children, Amin said that the burden of supporting his relatives was especially heavy due to the size of his extended family, which boasts 15 members. Now, he and his wife live in a small, unfurnished room under the stairwell of a downtown apartment building where he works as a doorman. While Amin earns more money in Cairo (the equivalent of about LE300 a month), he says that living in the city is more expensive. Amin and Awali, neither of whom went to school, understand how the size of a family can make it harder to make a living, and their story shows how far ideas of family planning have come in Egypt, even among uneducated and rural populations. Amin was one of ten children and his wife one of eight. Although they have been married five years, however, they only have one child. “In the village, we all wanted lots of kids, but then people saw how hard it was,” said Awali. “We only want two children so we can bring them up and feed them well.” Declining birth rates According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the Middle East has made considerable progress in reducing population growth rates since the 1980s, when it boasted some of the highest rates in the world. While the regional average is still high at about 2 percent (as opposed to 1.4 percent in the developing world as whole), certain countries have succeed in reducing growth rates noticeably. In Jordan, the annual growth rate has dropped from 3.7 percent in 1990 to 2.7 percent in recent statistics; Saudi Arabia from 5 percent to 2.9; and Syria from 3.3 percent to 2.4 percent. Even the Occupied Palestinian Territories have made progress, where rates have fallen from 3.8 percent to 3.6 percent. In this context, Egypt – which contains 22 percent of the Middle East’s Arab population and has managed to move its growth rate down from 2.3 percent in 1990 to 2.0 percent in 2004 – is considered a success story. “Egypt has been a success story in terms of family planning,” said Mona Khalifa of the UNFPA’s Cairo office. “There was a strong education campaign that was very successful in the 1980s and 1990s.” Khalifa added that TV programmes, campaigns in local schools and the mobilisation of religious leaders had successfully promoted the idea of a small, healthy and educated family. While Dr Yehia al-Hadidi, under-secretary for population at the Ministry of Health, agreed that considerable progress has been made, he admits that more must be done if Egypt is to meet its goal of lowering the average number of children per family from a current 3.1 to its official goal of 2.1. Al-Hadidi went on to note that the population issue would determine the country’s long-term economic development. “Every pound spent on family planning and reproductive health will save forty pounds spent on education, health, housing and jobs for that additional child,” he said. The bulge in the pyramid According to Khalifa, high birth rates are only part of the problem. “The problem now is not only population growth, but the shape of that population,” she said, noting that children born during a baby boom in the late 1980s are now trying to enter the workforce. “This gives the population pyramid a bulge in the middle, and this youth will soon reach the reproductive stage, which will lead to more births,” she said. Egypt’s biggest challenge now, said Khalifa, is to find room in the economy for this population bulge. “Unless there’s enough economic development to absorb these people into gainful employment, you’ll have an excess of demand for jobs, which isn’t good for the economy.” This, in turn, can lead to other social problems, Khalifa added. “When you have a large number of people who aren’t employed, you have lots of other social issues coming to the fore,” she said. “The education system can’t teach them all, and the health sector can’t treat them all.” Khalifa added that the birth rate may actually go back up if economic opportunities are not expanded in coming years. “We’re seeing this now, even among urban, educated women, who are going back to having large families.” A threat to social development In Yemen, too, the high rate of population growth poses a threat to social development, according to Arwa al-Rabee, deputy minister of population at the Ministry of Health. “We’re concerned about population growth, which threatens development plans and national prosperity,” said al-Rabee. At an annual 3.2 percent, Yemen’s population growth rate is one of the highest in the world. There are currently almost 20 million people in the country, distributed over 19 governorates, with most concentrated in urban areas. This uneven distribution, say experts, makes it difficult to provide all areas with basic services, a factor that has contributed to high rates of illiteracy, unemployment and malnutrition. According to UNFPA Information Officer Abdul-Rahman al-Shami, the Yemeni population doubles about every 19 years. “In 2025, the population will reach 35 million people,” he said, warning that national resources would not be able to keep pace with population growth. “There’s a shortage of natural resources, so there will be difficulties providing all citizens with services,” al-Shami said. One of the least developed countries worldwide, Yemen ranks 151 out of 177 countries on the UN’s Development Index for 2005. At least 43 percent of the population lives under the poverty line, meaning that they subsist on the equivalent of US $2 per day or less. According to al-Shami, some 240,000 jobs are needed every year to accommodate new entrants into the national work force. The average Yemeni family is large, consisting of 7.1 children. Amongst tribesmen, large families are considered a source of pride, while many Yemenis reject notions of western-style “family planning” as being contradictory to the tenets of Islam. With four wives, Mohammed al-Khamri, a butcher, is father to 24 children. “It’s good to have a large family, but it’s bad if you’re unable to maintain it,” he said. “I’m unable to maintain my large family, so I must ask my sons to find menial jobs so we can share the responsibility.” Most of al-Khamri’s children, busy with their various jobs, have not received basic education. Some of them have resorted to begging in the streets and in mosques. In an effort to stem runaway population growth, the health ministry is planning to launch family-planning and productive-health initiatives nationwide. “The initiatives would cover all areas of Yemen,” said al-Rabee. “They will also seek to offer free family planning.” The ministry has also launched a programme that aims to reach families directly through volunteer health workers. “We have recently trained 1,400 female workers to spread awareness among mothers about productive health,” al-Rabee said. BH+MAJ/AR/AM