MDC in crisis - can the centre hold?

The current crisis in the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has undermined the party's bid to present itself as an alternative to President Robert Mugabe and the ruling ZANU-PF. With the party divided over participation in the upcoming senate elections, MDC president Morgan Tsvangirai's leadership has been besieged by questions. Three weeks ago he overruled a national council decision, which voted in a secret ballot to participate in the senate poll. Tsvangirai based his veto on the belief that an upper house was an unnecessary drain on taxpayers and would do nothing to improve the lives of ordinary Zimbabweans, and the fact that the MDC had opposed the constitutional amendment that created the senate during the parliamentary debate on the issue. The influential women's and youth wings have backed him, but his attempt to overrule the national council decision, arrived at by a slim 33 to 31 margin, has seen party spokesman Paul Themba Nyathi, general-secretary Welshman Ncube and deputy president Gibson Sibanda accuse him of being undemocratic. They argued that the national council was the supreme decision-making body between congresses and Tsvangirai did not have the authority to ignore its verdict. Party officials in the MDC stronghold of Matabeleland insisted that by not contesting the senate poll they would hand victory to ZANU-PF, which up until now had been shut out of the southern region. On Monday, 27 members of the MDC defied their party president and filed nomination papers as candidates for the 26 November senate election. More surprising to MDC officials in the capital, Harare, was that three rural MDC members had filed papers to stand as candidates in urban Harare. The development followed an attempt by South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki to broker a deal between the factions at a weekend meeting attended by Sibanda and Ncube. Tsvangirai declined the invitation. John Makumbe, a senior political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe, commented that Tsvangirai had been blindsided at the national council meeting three weeks ago. The MDC leader had not expected a secret ballot, because "the national council has previously always decided by consensus or a show of hands", Makumbe said. Tsvangirai had fought against a secret vote on the matter, but was unable to get his way. "The impasse continues and the stalemate continues; insults are flying left, right and centre within the party. What is interesting is that [the ruling] ZANU-PF and the state media are firmly behind the MDC individuals who have decided to file nominations because they are useful for legitimising the regime," Makumbe noted. Most importantly, however, the split in the MDC has handed Mugabe an opportunity to argue that the MDC is no longer as popular as it once was, when in 2000 it came within a whisker of beating ZANU-PF in parliamentary elections. "Tsvangirai is scared, but whether they boycott or participate, to us that is irrelevant - they are an irrelevant party," Mugabe was recently quoted as telling a ZANU-PF rally in Bulawayo. DEFIANCE Tsvangirai's spokesman, William Bango, told IRIN the MDC leader would not recognise the 27 MDC senatorial candidates. Although he would not say what action Tsvangirai would take, he ruled out any chance of them being expelled from the labour-backed party. "Tsvangirai's position on the senate remains the same: he does not support participation, and he also does not recognise those who are purported to have registered for the elections on behalf of the party. But that does not mean he will go out of his way and expel them, because he is not a bloodthirsty person. He realises that this is a political crisis that requires a political solution," Bango commented. He rejected assertions that the open defiance of Tsvangirai was a sign of the MDC's imminent demise. MDC secretary-general Ncube meanwhile told IRIN: "It is unfair for anyone to suggest that those who complied with the national council resolution acted outside the law. If anything, it is those who support the boycott who are in violation of the party's constitution, which stipulates that no one has powers over the national council." Ncube said contesting the senate poll was necessary if the party was to remain relevant, despite MDC nationally losing all previous ballots and, along with several international election observers, accusing ZANU-PF of intimidation and rigging. Describing the meeting with Mbeki at the weekend, Ncube observed: "Mbeki had invited us ... [because] there seemed to be two sides to the MDC conflict. He wanted to hear both arguments and offered to mediate, that was his only interest. Tsvangirai was invited but he didn't think it would serve any purpose." But Makumbe maintained that Tsvangirai had not missed an opportunity to resolve the crisis in his party by spurning Mbeki's invitation. "Mbeki himself has never been happy with Morgan Tsvangirai as head of the opposition party ... he's scared of what they call a labour movement pushing out a liberator [Mugabe]. Mbeki's preference is for Ncube ... as he's an intellectual," Makumbe commented. The response of the Tsvangirai camp to the senate confusion has been a national tour of party offices. "Right now we have begun the process of visiting all provinces to denounce the elections and urge the people not to vote. I will visit all the provinces before the elections," Tsvangirai told IRIN. Makumbe said the fact that the 27 MDC candidates would be 'backed' by ZANU-PF but denounced by Tsvangirai would undermine their chances of success at the poll, and the position of the youth and women's wings would further erode their chances of success - "they'll have nobody to campaign on their behalf", he noted. MDC youth chairman Nelson Chamisa told IRIN that 'politics of the belly' may have played a role in the decision of the 27 candidates to stand - the 65 senators in the upper house will reportedly earn substantially more than members of parliament. RECONCILIATION However, Ncube stressed the principle on which the candidates registered, saying he believed the MDC "leadership must rethink and reflect on the founding values of the party". "We need to recommit ourselves to the values that bind us as collective decision-makers. If we all do that, I have no doubt that we can solve this problem," he noted. University of Zimbabwe political analyst Professor Henri Dzinotyiwei said, "The invitation from Mbeki [to the MDC leaders] shows that he considers the party as a partner in ending the crisis [in Zimbabwe]. To him the cohesion of the MDC gives it strength, and there is always the possibility that President Robert Mugabe would not talk to any faction of a crumbled MDC." Despite media reports predicting the end of the MDC, Makumbe said the party was not about to collapse. "This conflict is taking place at the highest level of leadership and not at grassroots level. Secondly, this is a necessary stage in the political development of the party - it's consolidating its power, its integrity and its membership, and in the process there are bound to be some elements who will fall out - it happens in every party," he observed. Analysts suggested that Tsvangirai would ride out the crisis over the next two months, ahead of an expected party congress, and then ask congress to decide on the poll dispute. "The danger, at the moment, of him pursuing the matter in any way is that it could be taken to court ... and it will become a question of ownership of the MDC," Makumbe pointed out. With the judiciary said to be compromised by political pressure, this could be a disastrous course of action. "There is quite a lot of work being done by various groups, including church leaders, to try and mediate between the MDC leaders," Makumbe said. "There could be a cooling-off period between now and next week - there is essentially a rapprochement in progress."