Feature - Mbeki on way forward

Zimbabwe's socio-economic problems are due to more than its current political instability, and South Africa had no right to dictate how these problems should be resolved, President Thabo Mbeki said on Friday. Mbeki noted the African National Congress' (ANC) "own experience as a movement tells us unequivocally that no lasting solution to the challenges that face Zimbabwe can be found, unless that solution comes from the people of Zimbabwe themselves". This follows a week in which Mbeki, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo and Malawi's President Bakili Muluzi visited Zimbabwe in a bid to "contribute to the resolution of the problems" facing the country. The three visiting presidents held discussions with the government of Zimbabwe and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). In his weekly letter posted on the ruling party's website, Mbeki slammed the conjecture which surrounded the visit. In an apparent reference to reports that Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe would be asked to step down, Mbeki said: "Even as we publicly communicated this simple message about the purpose of our visit, there were some in our country who insisted on imposing their own agendas on us. Accordingly, they pretended to know everything about what we would say to the political leadership of Zimbabwe, raising unjustified expectations that reflected their wishes." Such speculation and conjecture had "bedevilled the general understanding of the situation in Zimbabwe, as well as our response to this situation," he added. It was "these same detractors, who have their own partisan agendas which they dress in the language of high-sounding principles", who believed that South Africa "had some divine right to dictate to the people of Zimbabwe what they should do about their country". "They seem to believe that if we issued some instructions to the political leaders of Zimbabwe, as determined by themselves, this leadership would meekly obey what the "baas" (boss) across the Limpopo [river] would have told them," said Mbeki. South Africa would never treat Zimbabwe "as a tenth province". Paul Graham, executive director of the Institute for Democracy in South Africa, agreed with Mbeki that only Zimbabweans "can ultimately resolve the crisis that the country is in at the moment". "The president is correct to put the onus on Zimbabweans to do that. In his letter he does make the point that South Africans and others in the region are there to support that process, which is absolutely essential. The biggest difficulty has been whether all the people in Zimbabwe realise there is a crisis and are committed to resolving it, [but] it does now seem that conditions are ripe for a resolution," Graham said. ECONOMIC PROBLEMS Mbeki pointed out that Zimbabwe's current economic problems were not only due to the recent political instability, but also post-independence efforts by the government to advance equality by heavily increasing social sector spending; ensuring equitable pay for civil servants regardless of colour; and heavily subsidising goods and services "to guarantee a tolerable standard of living for the people". "These extraordinary expenditures could only be sustained by running a large budget deficit, and through foreign borrowing. In other words, this could only mean: live now, pay later!" The result was that by the end of the first decade of liberation, total public sector debt stood at 90 percent of GDP. Mbeki said by then "it was clear that the growth path chosen by the government of Zimbabwe was unsustainable, despite the objective declared not long after independence, of growth with equity". Graham told IRIN "the point that President Mbeki is making is that the present conditions in Zimbabwe have been a long time in the making". While that was "certainly true, there's also no doubt that it has reached crisis proportions in the last few years". "His [Mbeki's] analysis can help people to accept one another's bona fides and to talk to each other," Graham added. FUTURE UNCERTAIN To reverse the economic decline, "the people of Zimbabwe will have to make serious sacrifices and take a lot of pain", Mbeki cautioned. "This has been demonstrated by the sharp increases in the prices of petroleum products and the resultant rises in transport costs, as the government has reduced the unaffordable fuel subsidy," he pointed out. All of this served to illustrate that "the longer the problems of Zimbabwe remain unresolved, the more entrenched poverty will become. The longer this persists, the greater will be the degree of social instability, as the poor try to respond to the pains of hunger. The more protracted this instability, the greater will be the degree of polarisation and generalised social and political conflict". This would inevitably put the state in a position of having to respond by enforcing law and order, "even as it has ever fewer means to address the needs of the people". "As it responds in this manner, the less will it have the possibility to address anything else other than the issue of law and order. The more it does this, the greater will be the degree of the absence of order and stability," Mbeki warned. Internal dialogue among Zimbabweans and their leaders, and ongoing support from fellow Africans, was the only way "to break the vicious cycle", he concluded. Graham said Mbeki's letter "arises out of extremely fruitful meetings which were held in the last few days. Meetings which I think have brought a great deal of hope to many Zimbabweans". The letter came at a time when "there are still those in Zimbabwe who can't quite believe that things are going to move forward, and also many in Zimbabwe who are suffering quite desperately at the moment". Mbeki's statement "betokens an active engagement with the crisis in Zimbabwe and that also is very good", Graham added.