Military advance brings peace talks closer

Diplomats and security sources in Angola on Thursday confirmed government claims that Andulo, the last rebel UNITA stronghold in the central highlands, has been captured. A government communiqué on Wednesday, breaking weeks of silence on the progress of the current offensive, said the key UNITA bases of Andulo and Bailundo had fallen to the Angolan armed forces (FAA). It added that advances had also been made in Moxico and Malanje provinces. A Western military attaché in Luanda told IRIN on Thursday that Andulo and its strategic airbase had finally been captured on Wednesday morning. “I think it’s absolutely, very, very, very important,” he added. Andulo, a small town up in the hills of the central highlands, was thought to have been heavily-defended by UNITA. But security sources told IRIN last week that UNITA were attempting to evacuate military equipment from Andulo as government forces closed in from the north and south. Up until Monday, UNITA was denying that Bailundo had been captured and that Andulo was under threat. But security sources said that Bailundo had been taken by the FAA almost two weeks ago, and its airfield was being used to ferry troops and supplies in for the push on Andulo 120 km to the northeast. Diplomats and security sources told IRIN that UNITA was now trying to reorganise in the far eastern province of Moxico, with some units heading north towards the Cuanza river valley. They said UNITA would revert to guerrilla warfare tactics. Given the change in UNITA’s military fortunes - and the impact on rebel morale - they said a path towards negotiations between the government and UNITA was beginning to open. “The problem will not be solved by military means, but the offensive will be used to change the cards of the game,” one Western envoy said. But while not ruling out negotiations, the government has refused to talk with UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi who Luanda and regional neighbours brand a war criminal who has reneged on all past peace agreements. “The dilemma is that the government says it will negotiate with anybody but Savimbi. But if Savimbi is still around, what do you do?”, the envoy asked. “This is the biggest problem in Luanda right now,” another diplomat said. “I think we need some imagination to overcome this.” He said a worst-case scenario would be a split in UNITA in which the rebel movement could not be “delivered” in its entirety to the negotiating table, with factions in the bush degenerating into bands of roving bandits.