Maize shortage forecast

Zimbabwe is going to have to import at least 458,000 mt of maize to meet the country’s basic consumption requirements until the next harvest in April 2000, according to figures published in the June report of USAID’s Food Early Warning System (FEWS). It said the country currently had a total grain deficit of about 1 million mt, excluding wheat. Analysts said they did not know how the government would meet the shortfall and thus prevent public protests. “The total grain harvest of 1.7 million mt and carryover stocks estimated at about 50,000 mt, is not adequate to meet domestic human consumption requirements of 1.8 million mt, 460,000 mt for livestock feed and reconstitute the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) of 500,000 mt,” the FEWS report said. It added that the import requirements “can probably easily be met by the government given that in the past year it was able to import about 391,000 mt of maize without external assistance”. But John Clemmow, an analyst at Investec Securities, told IRIN on Wednesday he did not know where the government would find the funds this time to import maize. He attributed the shortfall to Grain Marketing Board prices that were too low to encourage farmers to grow more grain. “Unless they get an emergency transfusion of foreign exchange which does not appear to be forthcoming, we foresee trouble down the road, either because the government will be forced to raise grain prices or because there won’t be enough to go around,” he said. “Already at Zimbabwe’s main border crossings notices have been posted warning anyone exporting mealie meal that they can be imprisoned.” The consumer Council of Zimbabwe has reported a 300 percent increase of basic commodity prices since 1998, with the price of bread alone going up 103 percent since the beginning of the year. This coupled with electricity and fuel price increases in Zimbabwe “spell trouble for President Robert Mugabe,” Clemmow said. According to local news reports, the government owes the Grain Marketing Board (GMB)the equivalent of US $23.6 million in arrears for 270,000 mt of maize already distributed under a grain loan programme. Zambia is said to owe the board a further US $6.5 million for grain exported there. “Given the cost of the military intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo, I don’t know how they will find the money,” Clemmow said. The FEWS report said it was unlikely that further increases in the prices of goods and services in Zimbabwe would be met “by resentments and riots as experienced last year”.