Risk of humanitarian catastrophe in the south, warns FSAU

Parts of southern Somalia face a high risk of a humanitarian catastrophe between July and December this year, a United Nations food security analysis unit warned on Monday, urging humanitarian agencies to prepare for a worst-case scenario.

There are an estimated 1.7 million people in northern, central and southern Somalia facing conditions of acute food and livelihood crisis or humanitarian emergency. Preliminary estimates said that number would rise to 1.8 million - including 800,000 highly vulnerable children - over the coming months. The regions likely to be at highest risk include Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay and Bakool.

Southern Somalia, which is already reeling from the effects of a severe drought, is likely to receive below-normal rainfall, the Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in a statement. The gu (long) rainy season in Somalia normally starts in April and lasts until June.

"Given the significant possibility of a below normal outcome - combined with the current precarious humanitarian emergency in southern Somalia and the sustained possibility of widespread conflict - it is prudent for all stakeholders to prepare for a worst-case humanitarian and livelihood scenario," FSAU said.

The situation is also likely to deteriorate in drought-hit southern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya, according to a cross-border analysis carried out by FSAU, Famine Early Warning Systems Network, Save the Children-UK and the UN World Food Programme.

"Already we are seeing earlier predictions of humanitarian suffering and loss of livelihoods coming true," said Nicholas Hann, FAO's chief technical advisor to FSAU. "We are bracing ourselves for a major humanitarian catastrophe, including the death of potentially thousands of people and widespread displacement."

Even in the event that the seasonal rains are normal or above normal, there would still be need for continued humanitarian assistance to support livelihood recovery due to extremely high asset losses, weakened human health conditions and debt accumulation as a result of the drought.