Fears of regional destabilisation

Both sides in the Ethio-Eritrea war have made contacts with the rebels and dissident groups of their enemy. The support and encouragements given to these groups range from “off-the-record” contacts to hosting radio stations and military assistance, regional analysts told IRIN. The UN Security Council warned of the “devastating effect” an armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea could have “for the region as a whole,” in its resolution on 29 January.

In short, analysts say, Eritrea is intent on “activating the Oromo opposition” in Ethiopia, and backing warlord Hussein Aideed in Somalia in an attempt to block moves by Ethiopia in support of the southern Rahanwein militia and other Somali groups. Aideed’s spokesman has denied allegations carried by AFP that his faction received arms from Eritrea by air. In the propaganda war, Eritrean transmitters are thought now to relay programming in the Oromo language. A recent joint statement by the rebel Oromo Liberation Front and Ethiopia’s southeastern Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) endorses reports that Aideed supports both the OLF and the ethnic Somali Ethiopian opposition movement. Unconfirmed reports say Eritrea may too have been in touch with Ahmed Dini, who heads a faction of the Djiboutian rebel group FRUD. Djibouti remains Ethiopia’s lifeline and no longer has diplomatic relations with Eritrea.

Ethiopia, the analysts say, has been in touch with the fragmented Eritrean opposition, and BBC monitoring reported on 1 February that an opposition station called the ‘Voice of Peace and Democracy in Eritrea’ was broadcasting from transmitters in northern Ethiopia. As well as contacts with three factions of the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF), Ethiopia is thought to have been in touch with eastern Afar rebels, until recently opposed to both regimes in Asmara and Addis Ababa. An Ethiopian spokeswoman would concede only that a group of Eritrean opposition movements met in Addis Ababa in January.