Halfway through transitional period, peace remains elusive - Continued

Humanitarian situation deteriorates Despite the change in president, fighting has continued in parts of the country. There is little doubt that though a few may have benefited, the large majority of civilians continue to suffer, and providing humanitarian assistance remains difficult for the agencies involved. Most humanitarian agencies agree that their main problems are the lack of security on the ground and lack of government clearance to access war-affected populations, and, frequently, a combination of the two. "The political changes that are taking place are positive steps, but at the end of the day, security on the ground and access to people are our main concerns," Antoine Gerard, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Burundi, told IRIN. "We want to see these steps translated into tangible benefits for the population, otherwise we run the risk of there being two tracks of development - while the political process continues, the population continues to suffer," he said. Poverty increases In a country that was already extremely poor before the war, the humanitarian situation in Burundi has declined drastically over the last decade during what aid workers called "the silent emergency". By 2001, the Human Development Index for Burundi had dropped to the third worst in the world, reflecting the accumulating impact of the collapse of indicators such as vaccination coverage, which, according to OCHA, declined from 83 percent in 1993 to 54 percent in 2001. Primary school attendance, which declined from 70 percent in 1993 to 48 percent in 2001, served as another indicator of Burundi's decline. "Burundi is on its knees," Cyrille Barancira, an official at the Banque Commercial du Burundi, said. "If this war doesn't end now and the international community doesn't come in, this country could simply implode." Aid workers, who often complained about the lack of political will on all sides to bring about a lasting solution to the problem, said that the only thing that would change the lives of Burundians for the better was lasting peace. According to Action Contre la Faim, an organisation overseeing emergency food distribution and nutrition programmes in Burundi, there have been fewer beneficiaries recently despite the large numbers of internal displacements. However, the organisation was looking to see whether rain in May would be sufficient to ensure that the June harvest eases food security concerns. During the decade of war, basic health care deteriorated so drastically that, according to a recent report issued by the International Rescue Committee (IRC), an NGO that works in the health sector, disability in Burundi is often the result of the lack of primary health care and the subsequent non-treatment of minor problems rather than a result of war injuries. Civilians bear the brunt of human rights violations

Children sheltering at a building in the Ruyigi provincial administration compound - May 2003

Furthermore, civilians are increasingly on the receiving end of wide-scale human rights violations as a result of what many see as the "paralysis of the justice system". In a recent statement, the UN Security Council welcomed the approval of legislation on genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity and "looked forward to their implementation". But many Burundians felt that, in reality, this was a distant dream. "These laws are being introduced, but how, in the situation that the country is in, are we really going to impose these laws?" Nindorera, the former minister for human rights, said. "They give the impression of moving forward without addressing the real problem, which is the need for peace." In early May, the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of Human Rights in Burundi, Marie-Therese Bocoum, completed a trip around the country and echoed Nindorera's concerns. "With the war [between rebels and government forces] continuing in Burundi, I don't see how we can talk about the improvement of the human rights situation, human rights violations are committed daily," she said. Some observers have said the answer lies in an international tribunal similar to the Arusha-based tribunal for the Rwandan genocide. Others have called for increased references to the Geneva Conventions in the ceasefire agreements signed, so that all sides become more aware of the violations that they commit. Some Burundians are even hoping that the African Union (AU) force in Burundi would impose peace on their country. But many observers agree that, over the next 18 months, Ndayizeye's ability to bring a lasting ceasefire would be the only way to begin resolving Burundi's humanitarian problems. Military concerns

Rebel Soldier in Burundi

The humanitarian situation in Burundi has remained precarious because, despite a brief lull in hostilities immediately after the signing of the ceasefire in December, both sides have largely ignored the agreement. Soon after the formalities of the change in president were over, there was yet more fighting. On 5 May, the army launched heavy offensives against the FDD rebels in central and northern Burundi, leaving more than 100 dead. The rebels said that civilians were the victims, but the army said that it had killed rebels that had tried to occupy areas in Bubanza and Mwaro provinces. Meanwhile, the new president suggested that the army's attacks were in response to the bombing of Bujumbura by the FDD during the lead-up to the 30 April power transfer. Whatever the explanation, it was clear that a change in president was not going to bring an immediate end to the war. Some claimed that this was proof of Tutsi Vice-President Alphonse Marie Kadege's hardline stance towards the rebellion, after he warned the rebels during his inaugural speech "as they have become militant, the government is willing to fight them, so they are forced to accept what they should have done willingly". However, Ndayizeye considered an all-out war "unlikely" and observers said that both sides knew that an absolute military resolution of the conflict was impossible, as neither has the ability to ultimately defeat the other. The hostilities, they argued, were more an attempt by the government to assert its position before the pending talks with the rebels. The African peace force

Maj-Gen Sipho Binda of South Africa, commander of the African Union peacekeeping mission in Burundi - 30 April 2003

As the African Mission in Burundi (AMIB) deployed by the African Union (AU) arrive in greater numbers on the ground, speculation mounts over the role that they would play. According to Maj-Gen Sipho Binda of South Africa, the commander of the AMIB force, the AU troops have a clear mandate "to assist with the safeguarding of the terms of the ceasefire to enable the role players to implement what they agreed upon in Arusha". However, sceptics have repeatedly questioned how peacekeeping troops, with a "non-combat" mandate, would operate when essentially there was no peace to keep. According to the AU, 6 June is the date for the first cantonment area to be operational, and Binda said that, militarily, they would be ready to support the process, but there were still many other factors involved. "We, as a military, have a plan. We have a road map to peace but when it comes to cantonment areas, we have a lot of people that must be brought on board," he told IRIN. The main players, Binda said, had to be willing to stop fighting and, in the case of the rebel factions, have the confidence to come out of the bush and go to the cantonment areas "by themselves". But none of the rebel factions seem prepared to take part yet. FNL and CNDD-FDD have repeatedly said that they have not been involved in the negotiations over the AU mission and the cantonment areas, so there has to be further negotiations over nearly every security issue before cantonment is likely. "The points we still need to negotiate are the mandate of the AU mission, the training of the new defence force and the police, the establishment of cantonment zones for rebels and the barracking of government soldiers and the reintegration of combatants," Nkurunziza told IRIN. From the army's point of view, chances of an end to the fighting also seem slim and they argued that they would not return to the barracks while rebel attacks continued. "In the ceasefire it is clearly marked that so long as there is still fighting, the army will not return to the barracks," army spokesman Col Augustin Nzabampema told IRIN. "So, it is up to the rebellion to stop their attacks. In the meantime, we will continue our mission of maintaining security." Nzabampema added that although the army did not oppose reform, and had been discussing it for several years, implementation was still a long way off, as the parties were "not yet agreeing on many things, so discussions on the future structure of the army will continue". Other factors determining prolongation of war But there are other factors in play that will continue to determine how long war will continue in Burundi despite the change in president. Despite Tanzania's reassurances that it was not supporting rebels, there have been repeated calls from Bujumbura for Burundi's eastern neighbour to stop its support of the CNDD-FDD. Tanzania said it had nothing to gain from supporting the war and that western Tanzania's massive refugee population was proof of that. But critics say that ever since former Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere's involvement in the Burundi peace talks, Tanzania has always been more sympathetic to the Hutu cause. However, a diplomat in Bujumbura suggested that it was time that Tanzania was brought more closely into the Burundi process and, in return, it "came clean" on the issue of the rebels, known to launch their attacks from the bush in western Tanzania. A further complication was the important role that key members of the armed forces played in politics, business transactions and government contracts in Burundi. Many observers suggested that real change in Burundi was unlikely as there were too many profiting from the status quo and in the near future, the real power would remain in the hands in those in power in the army, no matter what reforms were made. "The power has never and will never leave the army," a local journalist said in Bujumbura. "They [the army] are the people deciding the policy so even if there is a change, the people that will have the influence are still Buyoya's men."

BURUNDI: Chronology of political and security situation in 2003
Major political players in Burundi

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