Refugees, agencies braced for political transition

In Burundi the first period of a three-year transitional government is drawing to an end. Under the terms of the peace agreement to end the civil war, presidential powers are to be transfered from a Tutsi to a Hutu on 1 May. But speculation among analysts and commentators over what the future holds for Burundi is rife. Aid agencies in western Tanzania and some Burundians are not relying on a smooth transition of power. They believe that waiting till the day will be too risky. The result is that refugee numbers have been mounting steadily and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has put in place a contingency plan to deal with a fresh influx. "The refugees are not going to sit around and wait until May - they are going to try and get out now," said Annette Nyekan, UNHCR's head of sub-office in Kibondo, where at least 6,000 Burundian refugees have arrived in the last three months alone. "Most of the fighting is in Ruyigi and Makamba, so we should be expecting them," she said. "We have to act now." Contingency plans UNHCR is in the final stages of putting together a countrywide contingency plan for an influx of up to 60,000 refugees: "We have plans for as many as 20,000 refugees coming into three of our sites in Ngara, Kibondo and Kasulu," Nyekan told IRIN. She said that plans involved gathering fuel and water supplies, preparing for bush camps if necessary, and putting in place regional stockpiles of food and non-food items. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the transition and the whole peace process, UNHCR and other agencies acknowledge that the number of refugees could be much higher. Observers say that if numbers do rise much above 60,000, serious problems could arise because a new camp would be needed and extra equipment and infrastructure would have to be airlifted in. UNHCR says it is already experiencing severe funding problems for its Tanzanian operation, largely due to donor fatigue and the slow pace of the peace process. The possibility of a new caseload will stretch it considerably. Tanzania's Ministry of Home Affairs is aware of the pending crisis and is desperate to avoid it because it believes Tanzania suffers greatly from the refugee influxes. The ministry's representative in Kibondo, Epiphany Chokola, says the country could handle 60,000 refugees this year but beyond that the pressure would be too great. Not taking any chances The refugees have started coming as many believe that the longer they wait the harder it will be to flee Burundi in the event of trouble. "There are government soldiers in Gitega who say that when May comes, no one should run away. That is why I ran away now," Theresa Ndegaya, a 40-year-old Burundian woman from Ruyigi, told IRIN. Despite losing five of her six children to war and disease in Burundi, Ndegaya was fleeing for the first time. She had heard talk of fighting being planned for May and eventually decided to leave. "Recently I had been sleeping outside my house because I was afraid of being killed, but enough is enough," she said. Other refugees waiting to be registered at the Mtendeli refugee camp also told of government troops being deployed and the fear of being caught up in 1 May related violence. "We returned to Burundi from Tanzania in June last year, but recently things have been getting worse so we left again," Stephan Mvungwa, who left Ruyigi with his wife and three children, said. "It was the way the soldiers were looking at us -it made us feel uneasy. Also, there is talk that there will be killings when there is supposed to be a change of power." Mvungwa said that soldiers were trying to block escape paths, but his family ran at night and reached the border after travelling for three days through the bush. Wait and see Like most analysts, the refugees in the camps are unwilling to predict what will happen over the next month. But after so many broken promises and agreements, few believe any statements of reassurance coming from Bujumbura or from the peace negotiations. President Pierre Buyoya "is impossible", a refugee in Nduta camp said. "He has signed all these ceasefires, but when he goes back to Burundi, he ignores them," the refugee said. "He will never change. Only the international community is in a position to force him to change." There are others, though, who believe Buyoya has his hands tied and that real power lies with people behind the scenes. So predicting what will happen is virtually impossible. "We believe that Buyoya is working for a clique, and they are the people who won't let him quit," said Barnabus Bugera, a teacher and former diplomat in the first Buyoya government now living in Kanembwa refugee camp. "The situation is very confusing."