Situation unravelling, ICG warns

The international community is today presented with almost a "textbook case" of all the major warning signs of a deteriorating situation across a range of political, military, economic and social fronts in Liberia, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said on Monday. In a briefing paper titled 'Liberia: Unravelling', the Brussels-based think-tank said the real question would be whether the international community could not only recognise these signs but also muster the will to take effective action to prevent the situation from escalating into broader violence. Liberia's continuing, but somewhat sporadic, civil war - pitting government forces against those of the rebel Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) - is the most obvious manifestation of the current crisis, ICG said. Both sides had resorted to looting civilians and humanitarian aid to finance their operations in recent months, it added. The fighting has already displaced more than 100,000 people within Liberia and caused 40,000 to 60,000 others to flee to neighbouring countries this year, according to the briefing paper. It said the economic situation remained quite grim, with high unemployment, while rampant corruption and an understandable lack of international investor confidence had added to the already bad situation. Many Liberians now believe they are entering a catastrophic humanitarian emergency phase reminiscent of the 1989-1996 civil war, the think-thank noted. On the political front, opposition to President Charles Taylor is deeply divided: while opposition politicians portrayed their ineffectiveness as entirely stemming from government intimidation, their own winner-takes-all approach seemed to vary little from that of the current government, according to the ICG. The international approach to Liberia has put considerable pressure on Taylor's government without establishing a clear roadmap toward either reforming, replacing or working with that government, it said. "In short, the international community's awkward stance - working neither to engage nor to remove President Taylor - has produced a wounded government that is increasingly desperate, in the face of a steady civil war and a general population that remains braced for the worst." The ICG argues that the international community will need to arrive at new clarity in dealing with Liberia and choose between the poles of engagement and isolation. "The most promising approach, although one obviously deeply controversial and with its share of shortcomings, is reaching some accord directly with President Taylor that would achieve his graceful retirement at the end of his presidential term in October 2003 - and permanent departure from the political scene - in exchange for guarantees of his safety and protection against prosecution by the recently convened Special Court in Sierra Leone," ICG said. [See the full briefing]