'Hasty deal will not end political crisis'

Regional and international pressure to end Zimbabwe's bitter political conflict may result in a hasty deal that could undermine democratic principles, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned.

As Zimbabwe marked 22 years of independence from Britian on Thursday, President Robert Mugabe struck a conciliatory note in his address to the nation. Talks between the ruling ZANU-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are set to begin on 13 May under the stewardship of South African and Nigerian facilitators.

However, concern has been raised that the intense regional and global interest in finding a solution to the political impasse could result in a deal that endorses an election many observers believe was flawed.

AFP reported on Thursday that Mugabe made fresh appeals for Zimbabweans to unite in the wake of the disputed March election that returned him to power.

"Let us build our country, let us bury our differences. It is time to close ranks ... time to grow, time to develop and time for the empowerment and enrichment of our people, and this can only be done when a nation is united," Mugabe reportedly told a rally attended by 40,000 people at a sports stadium in Harare.

Zimbabwe is in the grip of severe food shortages and faces an economic meltdown.

John Prendergast, co-director of the Africa programme of the ICG, told IRIN on Thursday: "At some point well into the negotiations, one can imagine a scenario where a plan is laid down and ZANU says they can live with it under strong pressure from South Africa.

"Yet this plan could be absolutely unacceptable to the rank and file of the MDC. The MDC leadership would be under intense pressure to make a decision, either they alienate their rank and file or they stand on principle and risk isolation regionally and internationally."

There was a recognition by the South Africans of the "enormous gulf" between ZANU-PF and the MDC, he said. But they "appear to be focused on this for as long as it takes, they have the confidence of President [Thabo] Mbeki and President [Olusegun] Obasanjo".

The objective of the South African and Nigerian facilitators was to immediately get dialogue going, said Prendergast "Only later will they start to put forward potential compromises and positions both parties might be able to move forward on. However, it's important that South Africa maintain the objective of neutral facilitation."

It was inevitable, he said, that liberation movements throughout Southern Africa, including the ANC, would have "issues" with the MDC's origins, platform and composition.

Said Prendergast: "Not only is the model of a labour and civil society based political party considered by some to be threatening on a political level, [they] also have different views on how the region will move forward on political and economic policies.

"Therefore, the starting point for the ANC-MDC relationship will be more problematic than the starting point for the ANC-ZANU-PF relationship, which is not all roses either."

Observers and role-players needed to be aware of the possibility of a "diplomatic ambush" should a final plan be presented that is deeply flawed.

"Nobody wants to see this thing escalate with [consequent] reverberations throughout the region. That would cause deterioration in investor confidence and the economic climate. Everyone wants a solution, but the solution must be based on [democratic] principles.

"We have a Commonwealth judgment on the election - echoed by the vast majority of Zimbabwean [NGO/civil society] groups and the international community with the exception of a few important governments and regional groups in Africa - that these elections were not free and fair.

"Therefore, to ignore that and cobble together something that simply legitimises a process that does not meet the minimum standards for democracy, should not be the foundation for an agreement to end the stalemate," Prendergast said.

Prendergast had on Wednesday attempted to enter Zimbabwe to hold discussions with ZANU-PF and the MDC. However, when he arrived at Harare airport, police and customs officials expelled him. Prendergast was a senior member of the US State Department during Bill Clinton's presidency.

"I had spent time with key people in the South African government and the [ruling African National Congress] ANC, talking about their negotiating strategy, so I intended to speak to both sides [in Zimbabwe] about possible compromises [that could be worked out in negotiations]," Prendergast said.

Prendergast's expulsion from Zimbabwe came after the editor of Zimbabwe's Daily News, Geoff Nyarota, and South African newspaper Business Day's correspondent, Dumisani Muleya, were arrested and charged with abuse of journalistic privilege. A conviction on the charge could mean a two-year jail term under the new Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act.

On Wednesday police used the same legislation to charge another editor, Iden Wetherell of the Zimbabwe Independent, AFP reported.