"New KANU" merger presents new questions

On 18 March, at Kasarani Stadium outside the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, the Kenya African National Union (KANU) and the National Development Party (NDP) merged as New KANU and picked a new leadership line-up for the period after President Daniel arap Moi's expected retirement later this year. The merger meeting - widely billed as one of the decisive moments in Kenya’s political history - involved no contests, with new office bearers voted in by acclamation and other potential candidates persuaded to step aside in an orchestrated sequence of events. This had not been easy to realise, as stated by Moi at the meeting. The meeting saw Raila Odinga (son of the late politician, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga) selected as secretary-general of New KANU, and Uhuru Kenyatta, Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Katana Ngala chosen as the four vice-chairmen. Trade and Industry Minister Nicholas Biwott, who reportedly played a key role in coordinating the merger process, was appointed organising secretary of the newly-merged party. Those to have borne the brunt of compromises made in the merger process include two former KANU stalwarts, Kenyan Vice-President George Saitoti and the former party’s secretary-general, Joseph Kamotho, who were persuaded to announce their withdrawal from the competition for posts (as party vice-chairman and secretary-general respectively) at a late stage. The withdrawal of Saitoti and Kamotho from the "New KANU" leadership line-up has enabled Moi to bring in young faces, according to Kipkoech Tanui of the East African Standard newspaper. It also marked "a fundamental shift in power to a cluster of politicians whom President Moi saw as toddlers when he interacted with their fathers early in his political career", Tanui added. However, a former chairman of the Law Society of Kenya, Gibson Kamau Kuria, sees the real objective of the merger as being a move "to consolidate and further entrench the political hegemony of those informal clan-ethnic groups in the formal structures of the ruling party". Before, during and after Kasarani, Moi emphasised the importance of the youth vote, particularly stressing the sheer numbers involved. About half the Kenyan population of some 30.7 million is estimated to be under 15 years, and almost 23 percent between 15 and 24 years, according to figures from the United Nations Population Division. [see http://esa.un.org/unpp/p2k0data.asp] Given Moi's strong emphasis on youth, it was no great surprise that he brought in the sons of former political partners, with personalities with whom he and his closest advisers felt comfortable, inside the all-important ethnic and regional framework, according to local political observers. With Kenya now well into a scheduled election year, political events and decisions are already being assessed in terms of vote-value. In that light, observers told IRIN, Kasarani was never going to be a free-for-all election: from the beginning it was a carefully pre-planned selection of a line-up that fulfilled certain immediate regional and ethnic requirements in terms of securing votes. One of the big winners in the recent shake-up, Uhuru Kenyatta (son of the late Kenyan President Jomo Kenyatta), to all appearances the senior of the four vice-chairmen of New KANU, failed to get elected at the constituency level in the 1997 general election. Since then, however, he has been broadly supported in the Central and Rift Valley Provinces, and it is envisaged that he will bring in many more Kikuyu votes - and perhaps even from other parts of the country - than either Saitoti, whose background is both Maasai and Kikuyu, or Kamotho. Kasarani also saw the formal dissolution of the NDP and the ratification of the constitution of the freshly merged parties, a document which bestows formidable powers on the national chairman of New KANU - President Moi - including the distribution of duties to every official within the party. It appears, therefore, that when Moi steps down from the presidency, he will retain considerable influence over the policies and personalities of the next government, if, as appears likely, it is formed by the KANU/NDP merger. Beyond Saitoti and Kamotho, others prevailed upon not to contest key posts were Joseph Nyagah and Cyrus Jirongo. Nyagah, a junior minister in the Office of the President, announced at Kasarani that he would not be putting his name forward for one of the four posts of vice–chairman. Minister for Rural Development Cyrus Jirongo was also prevailed upon to withdraw the day before the merger. Above all, perhaps, women lost out in the Kasarani process, with just one of 23 elective party posts going to a woman. Observers considered that this may not have been altogether surprising, since President Moi has recently spoken out against the concept of affirmative action. In addition, they said, women who were interested in the elections only started to strategise at the very last minute; not surprisingly, they then found they could not vie for party posts because they had not been registered as delegates. Kasarani has defined a new political landscape in Kenya, but still New KANU with plenty to do in the relatively short time before the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for later in the year, including: bedding down a new leadership and organisational structure; holding grass-roots elections; selection of the party’s flag bearers for the presidential elections; and the appointment of an executive officer. Sources also confirm that, so far, there has been no progress on the party’s manifesto for the forthcoming election. What remains to be seen, according to analysts, is whether the new, broad-based leadership, carefully created to maintain the interests of State House, will appeal to Kenyans and convince them that it is truly representative of their own interests.