Allegations of poll rigging

It would be nothing short of a miracle for Morgan Tsvangirai to emerge victorious over Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe's seemingly flawed presidential election. This was the belief of Chris Maroleng, a researcher with the African Security Analysis Programme of the Institute for Security Studies, as the third day of voting drew to a close on Monday. Allegations of electoral irregularities have emerged and the opposition have approached the courts to extend the polling into a fourth day. AP reported that the Zimbabwe Human Rights Forum (Zim Rights), claimed election observers and polling agents had been assaulted in Bulawayo and in Centenary. It said a Commonwealth observer group had to "rescue" the locals from ruling party militia. The rights group also said three polling agents representing the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) were attacked by a group of ruling party militants in Hurungwe. Zim Rights claimed that "police attacked voters and fired teargas at two Harare area polling stations, prompting voters to flee from one of the stations. With regard to allegations of poll rigging Zim Rights said they received "reports of bogus polling stations set up and helicopters flying ballot boxes in and out of Gokwe North area. Opposition representatives were cleared from the area". The organisation claimed 92 percent of voters at a polling station in Bulawayo south were turned away despite being registered. The organisation listed a litany of similar allegations of intimidation and poll-rigging. In his paper Future Power Plays in Zimbabwe, Maroleng states that: "The increasing number of reports of political violence and serious violations of human rights ... particularly by members and supporters of Mugabe’s ZANU-PF, coupled with the introduction of draconian laws by the government (prior to the election), had further tilted an already uneven political playing field, to the distinct disadvantage of the MDC. "In these circumstances it appears that it would take nothing short of a miracle to prevent Mugabe winning." "The question then arises: what would such a victory mean for the internal dynamics of the ZANU-PF, and the central issue of an eventual presidential succession. This is a particularly interesting point of conjecture when one considers the various factions jostling for power and influence, sometimes split along ethno-linguistic and provincial lines." Maroleng said the current dominant faction within ZANU-PF, led by Mugabe, had at its core a large following of the Zezuru ethno-linguistic group, one of the principal Chishona-speaking groups. "Most analysts agree that should Mugabe win the election he would seek an exit strategy that would allow him to retire reasonably soon without fear of prosecution and provide him with protection from revenge by some of the enemies that he has made over the past two decades," Maroleng said. For such a strategy to work it would require that Mugabe's successor be someone he can "trust and (who) has a relatively constant history of loyalty to (Mugabe). The successor would also have to have the capacity to provide the protection that Mugabe requires and would have to be considered politically astute enough to remain in power long after Mugabe has left the stage. Finally, this successor would preferably come from the dominant Zezuru ethnic group, as ethno-linguistic considerations seem to play an important part in Zimbabwean politics". Maroleng said the fight to be Mugabe's successor would likely be bloody. "The ensuing power plays that will inevitably occur within ZANU-PF as a result of the hotly contested succession to the presidency will not be uneventful. Considering the fact that ZANU-PF has a long and checkered history of resorting to violence as a means of sorting out political problems, it seems reasonable to anticipate that even after the elections, politically motivated acts of violence will continue to be an essential component of the political landscape of Zimbabwe. "Excessive factionalism in ZANU-PF could lead to the implosion of this political party, which would create space for the MDC to take power itself. However, this is all very much future music and one hopes against hope, that a peaceful election and transitional period will be experienced in Zimbabwe," Maroleng said.