FOCUS on US strike threat

"Gruesome, harrowing, intense" - these are words that have been used to describe the just-released movie 'Black Hawk Down' which claims to depict events in 1993 when elite US troops launched a doomed mission to capture warlords in the Somali capital, Mogadishu. Some say this description could apply to the war-torn country itself, now reportedly facing the threat of US attacks again. But, observers point out, "the Somalia of today is not the Somalia of 'Black Hawk Down'". "By a twist of fate, the new movie 'Black Hawk Down' is opening in theatres just as the United States is considering expanding the war on terrorism into Somalia," remarks Ken Menkhaus, a US professor and former adviser to the UN on Somalia. "Somalia and the US are apparently doomed by fate to collide at critical moments in global politics. This collision has never brought anything but trouble to both parties." Since civil conflict erupted in the country after the ouster of President Siad Barre in 1991, Somalia has been struggling to rise from the anarchy prevailing in the country. And, according to Somalia watchers, from the ashes of the civil war, there is a success story. Entrepreneurs are returning to the country, reconstruction is underway, business is booming (particularly in the provision of internet and financial services), the warlords of 1993 are either dead or their power base has been weakened, and aid organisations have been able to operate again, mitigating some of the dire humanitarian needs. A report by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) says that while human development in Somalia is "unacceptably poor", over the past decade "there have been significant developments in communications technology and economic infrastructure". "The stabilisation of violent conflict throughout much of Somalia since the mid-1990s has meant that war-related deaths, life-threatening emergencies, refugee movements, and internal displacements have diminished," UNDP said in its latest Human Development Report on Somalia. It noted however that the security situation could not be generalised. Regional analysts say that apart from uncertainty over whether the US will strike, one of the biggest destabilising factors is the self-interest of the warlords and faction leaders "who keep changing sides depending on what they are offered". "Some parties are quick to manipulate and exploit these weaknesses," one analyst observed. "Somalia is not Afghanistan" The lack of any stable central government and the chaos of the civil war has led to fears that radical groups can use Somalia as a safe haven and training ground. Observers note that Washington believes the country is a likely refuge for members of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, fleeing Afghanistan. The US Department of Treasury has accused the Mogadishu-based remittance and telephone company Al-Barakaat of funding terrorism, leading to its assets being seized in various countries. Al-Barakaat has denied any links to terrorism, and offered to make its books available to US investigators. Observers say that remittances sent to Somalia via institutions such as al-Barakaat constituted the greatest financial receipts in the country and its closure hurt tens of thousands of people. Writing in Jane's Defence Weekly, Hailes Janney, a specialist in African defence and security issues, says that "despite its history, Somalia never became a bastion for terrorist groups as in Afghanistan" due partly, he says, to the clan system. He says Somalia's Islamist movement al-Ittihad - widely believed by US officials to have links with al-Qaeda - "has lost much of its formal structure since it abandoned efforts to physically control territory". Ken Menkhaus concurs. He describes al-Ittihad as a "small, relatively weak organisation with a mainly domestic agenda". "Some individuals have had links to al-Qaeda that merit close scrutiny, but the group as a whole is in no way a subsidiary of al-Qaeda," Menkhaus says. Neither, he adds, should parallels be drawn between the Taliban of Afghanistan and Somalia's Transitional National Government (TNG). "It [TNG] is extremely weak, controlling only half of the city of Mogadishu, and while it has some al-Ittihad members in its parliament, it is by no means a front for Islamists." Menkhaus says any attack against the TNG would constitute a "serious error". "One of the costs of ignoring Somalia since 1994 is that now we [US] are caught trying to formulate policy about a country we know virtually nothing about," he remarks. He believes that while concern about Somalia as a refuge has merit, in reality it is a "lousy refuge for non-Somali radicals". "Foreigners cannot operate in secrecy in Somalia; everyone knows who you are and what you're doing," he says. In the same vein, Jane's Defence Weekly adds that Washington has been "made dependent on its so-called friends by poor intelligence" and will be "manipulated and misled at every turn". Rebuilding the Country Humanitarian organisations point out that there has been noticeable progress in rebuilding the country since the events of 1993. "The international community must recognise that the Somalia of today is not the Somalia of 'Black Hawk Down'," a humanitarian worker with many years' experience in Somalia told IRIN. "There have been many positive changes and much progress has been made. This must be recognised and taken into account when formulating policy." Somalia watchers say that in the ensuing years, faction leaders and warlords have been considerably weakened, and Somalis themselves - tired of fighting and insecurity - are largely responsible for the development of their country. Business is flourishing, telephones and the internet are functioning, doctors are returning to provide medical care and financial services are booming. "Name me an anarchy where you can build a house, start a business, make a telephone call or log onto the internet," one observer pointed out. CARE International, one of the largest humanitarian organisations in Somalia, stresses there are desperate needs in the country that must be addressed - food crises leading to serious malnutrition, the ban on livestock imports from Somalia imposed by Gulf states and the threat of US air strikes hanging over people's heads. "The threat of strikes has disrupted people's lives and is a disincentive for investment," warned Scott Faiia, CARE's country director for Somalia. "Somalia has changed," he added, "and progress must be supported". He believes that life has gradually improved for the average person, and this process must be allowed to continue. Humanitarian workers have expressed concern that 'Black Hawk Down' will reinforce the "mistaken belief" that Somalia is still a country of anarchy and chaos, and that it will sway public opinion in a "negative way". "The current reality has nothing to do with 1993," one observer remarked. "The Somali people were making visible progress - the threat of US strikes has slowed down, stopped or reversed this." US professor Ken Menkhaus concludes: "As 'Black Hawk Down' reminds us, snatching Somalis in the heavily-armed, clannish neighbourhoods of Mogadishu is a very high risk...Chasing down minor players in the crowded dens of Mogadishu would be very unwise."