Gulu situation generates cautious optimism

There have been "some very encouraging developments" in the northern district of Gulu in the last two months, including the surrender of more than 50 rebels of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) under the terms of an amnesty, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in the Ugandan capital, Kampala. The number of rebels who had made their own way to their villages was also said to be high, since many returned straight to their communities and did not report to the authorities, OCHA stated in a humanitarian update released late last week. In addition, it said, information about the government's Amnesty Act for those rebels who handed themselves in seemed to be reaching more and more villages throughout the district. The Ugandan army, or Uganda People's Defence Forces, now estimated the number of LRA fighters operating in northern Uganda at around 100, and those in southern Sudan at about 300, the report stated. The remnants in northern Uganda had now split into smaller groups engaged in banditry, though on a smaller scale than before, it said. Abductions had also reduced significantly, with a few people - and not necessarily children - taken to carry looted goods after rebel raids, it added. The US-based Women’s Commission for Refugee Women and Children reported in early November that - with the Sudanese government ending its support for the LRA, tighter Ugandan army control of the border between the two countries and increasing divisions within the LRA - "the pattern of [youth] abduction had changed and, currently, often involved forced labour and shorter-term captivity" - as opposed to forced movement to Sudan for training and indoctrination. The camp for internally displaced people (IDPs) at Pabbo, which has been among the worst affected by banditry and looting, had enjoyed calm throughout early December, OCHA stated in its November/December update. IDPs were taking advantage of the improved security - though it was still fluid in many areas - to work in their gardens outside the "protected camps", to move further along the roads and travel deeper into the countryside to their villages, to which they had not had access for a long time, it reported. Although this trend had been observable in Kitgum District since the middle of the year, it was now "encouraging to see that Gulu is also perceived to be safer", with 25 percent of the IDP population now estimated to be accessing their gardens, OCHA said. Although the district authorities had not directed "decongestion" of the bigger IDP camps in so many words, there were numerous reports of people responding to new deployments by the Ugandan army, and creating settlements close to these, or sub-camps outside larger, existing IDP camps like Pabbo, it added. Gulu District now faces the challenge of developing "a comprehensive and efficient strategy for assisting the IDPs if they choose to return to their homes," according to OCHA. Humanitarian agencies also had "a special obligation" to link up for joint assessments and planning missions in order to maximise the impact of limited individual budgets, it said. While the amnesty and generally improved security situation now seemed to be yielding results, and certainly to be giving IDPs new hope, the report also warned that ordinary people were fearful of an escalation in hostilities during the current holiday season. In offering an optimistic and enthusiastic assessment of developments during this "uncertain phase of hope", OCHA also warned last week - based on past experience - that the government, local authorities and relief agencies should be "well prepared to assist in a worst-case scenario" of renewed violence and social upheaval. The agency has noted in recent months that Uganda is entering a critical, but fragile, period in which a few violent attacks, coupled with unbridled rumour and misinformation, could undermine improving security. In order to consolidate recent socioeconomic and political gains in Uganda, it said, there was a need for "serious commitment towards political accommodation", as well as heavy and long-overdue investment in peripheral areas through a joint government, donor and aid community "framework for recovery".