Maize price rise on back of regional gloom

As Zimbabwe and Zambia face serious maize deficits, South African maize futures prices have risen sharply on expectations of higher demand because of shortages in the region.

South Africa is expected to produce 7.04 million mt of the staple maize this season versus last year’s exceptional 10.1 million mt, Reuters reported. Domestic consumption is between seven and eight million mt a year, but the country has carryover stocks from last season of about two million mt. July white maize contracts are at 933 rand (US $113.5) per mt, 48 percent higher up on a year ago.

By contrast, USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET) has forecast Zimbabwe will run out of maize by February 2002 if there are no imports to augment domestic supply.
The agriculture ministry has maintained it still has not assessed a need for imports, Reuters said. The government has accused white commercial farms, who produce about 40 percent of the national maize crop, of hoarding grain to create artificial shortages and hiking prices in retaliation for the state’s drive to seize white-owned farms for redistribution to landless blacks.

Meanwhile, Zambia’s maize output is sharply down in 2000/2001 and the government has launched an urgent appeal for aid for two million people facing severe shortages. The main growers’ Zambia National Farmers’ Union (ZNFU) said maize production was down by 30 percent in 2000/2001 to 490,000 mt.