Risk of “full-scale return to war”

With the focus on peace moves in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), an “explosive situation” in neighbouring Burundi is being largely ignored, regional analysts warned on Friday. Burundi analyst Jan van Eck of the Pretoria-based Centre for International Policy Studies painted a gloomy picture of the prospects for peace in the country, stressing that the Arusha peace accord was on the verge of collapse and there was a real prospect of Burundi returning to full-scale war. Van Eck told IRIN that a regional anti-Tutsi alliance was developing, as Burundian rebels and other Hutu rebellions based in the DRC were now moving their bases to Burundi and Tanzania with the ultimate objective of toppling the governments in Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda.

Once the Burundi government - seen as the weakest of the three - had been overthrown, the country could then be used to launch attacks on the other two. He said Rwanda was very worried by the situation and warned that it would not stand back and watch if its borders were threatened. “The war is shifting from Congo to Burundi and if this happens, it is inevitable there will be some attacks on the [Burundi] refugee camps in Tanzania,” he said. [For full report, see separate IRIN item of 4 May headlined - BURUNDI: Arusha accord on “verge of collapse”].