IRIN Focus on Kabila shooting

Zimbabwe on Wednesday called on regional powers not to abandon the faltering Congo peace process following the reported assassination on Tuesday of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) President Laurent-Desire Kabila. Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe, in Cameroon attending a francophone summit which was due to discuss the DRC conflict, reportedly said that “events in the Congo should not lead to anyone reneging on the Lusaka agreement”, his spokesman in Harare told IRIN. Mugabe also called for a meeting of the countries allied to Kinshasa - Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe to “review the situation” in the DRC. Amid the conflicting accounts on Wednesday of the fate of Kabila - reportedly shot and killed by a bodyguard during an argument with senior generals - analysts said his military allies had become increasingly frustrated with him. Kabila not only blocked implementation of the 1999 peace agreement, tying down the allied forces in the DRC, but also failed to control the Angolan rebel movement UNITA. “For sometime I’ve been very suspicious of the alliance,” Claude Kabemba of the South African Institute of Policy Studies told IRIN. “Kabila’s army has become difficult to manage and Mugabe has wanted to get out of the country. With the revival of UNITA there is also a question mark over (Angolan President Eduardo) dos Santos. He is not there for Kabila or the Congolese but for his own security.” Zimbabwe Mugabe has been Kabila’s key ally, rallying regional support against the DRC “invasion” by Rwandan and Ugandan forces supporting the DRC rebels. Under a military cooperation agreement, Zimbabwe committed between 11,000 to 12,000 troops out of a 40,000-strong army to the war. It is a conflict that is deeply unpopular domestically and has been a stumbling block to a desperately-needed deal with the IMF. Government officials claimed that business links with the DRC would offset expenditure, but the returns have not materialised. Making clear his reservations over the cost of the war effort, Finance Minister Simba Makoni said in August last year that Zimbabwe had spent over US $200 million in the DRC that it could ill-afford. Independent analysts said the figure was closer to US $300 million. “The [private] business community has not committed itself to do business in the DRC,” a senior official in the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries told IRIN on Wednesday. “We’ve been pushing the government to withdraw from the DRC. We’ve committed a lot of resources to the DRC and got nothing back.” Zimbabwe’s business deals have involved the purchase of cheap power from the DRC, the importation of a small quantity of copper condensate, and diamond mining ventures by the Zimbabwe military. However, according to Tsinge Dube, the head of the Zimbabwe Defence Industries, even the mining ventures required far more initial investment than was originally envisaged. “We tried to get into some joint ventures in diamonds, but they have not worked and remained on the drawing board,” he told IRIN. At least 39 Zimbabwean soldiers have died in the conflict, and expensive equipment has been lost, particularly helicopters. In December, 300 soldiers fled across the DRC’s southern border into Zambia following the fall of Pweto to Rwandan-backed rebels. News reports in Harare said a wave of court martials followed over the refusal of soldiers to serve in the DRC. The reports were denied by the military authorities, who alleged that morale remained high in the army. However, security sources in Harare told IRIN that the government has been trying to disengage from the DRC since last year. “Mugabe has been unable to get out because of the reluctance of Kabila to go ahead and implement the Lusaka accords. He can’t afford to get out and leave Kabila in power to be overthrown,” Kabemba said. If Kabila were dead, a hasty Zimbabwean withdrawal would also be unlikely, he added. “That would show naiveté. Zimbabwe would try and link up with the new leadership and say they are in the country for peace and solidarity with the country and people rather than Kabila.” Angola Angola’s deployment in the DRC is aimed at blocking UNITA’s traditional supply routes in the Congo. According to the London-based publication ‘Africa Confidential’, apart from providing aircraft and military equipment, oil-rich Angola has also contributed to the costs of Zimbabwe and Namibia’s deployment. However, disillusioned with Kabila’s alleged failure to prevent UNITA trafficking diamonds through his territory, Angola last September began a public rapprochement with Uganda. That has involved talking with the Kampala-backed rebel Mouvement de Liberation du Congo (MLC) of Jean-Pierre Bemba. Luanda has also opened links with other DRC rebel leaders. In November the commander of the Angolan armed forces (FAA) General Joao de Matos announced in Kinshasa that the Angolan military presence in the DRC was only symbolic. “We considerably reduced our forces here ... That does not mean Angola has removed itself from the Congolese conflict, we follow in detail what happens here,” he said. De Matos’ visit to Kinshasa followed an earlier meeting he had in Angola with the head of the Ugandan military, General Jeje Odongo. [This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]