Major stockpiling undermines effect of embargo

Announcement of the arms embargo provoked criticism by some observers who felt the Security Council had waited too long to take action against a war that is considered the largest in Africa, in terms of troop numbers and sophisticated weaponry. A regional analyst told IRIN that the arms embargo would make little difference to the two countries, which had spent the last two years buying sophisticated ground and air weaponry. They said the effect of the resolution was mainly “a poke in the eye”. Horn of Africa commentator Patrick Gilkes told the BBC that the embargo would not have a significant effect.

The embargo would mean the two countries “may have to pay a bit more, but they have got what they need at the moment”, he said. He attributed the success of the Ethiopian offensive partly to the fact that Ethiopia’s build-up of weaponry had been “a little bit bigger”, but mainly to the element of surprise. Ethiopia attacked on the Western front and seized Barentu, instead of moving on the already established Mereb front. Gilkes said the Ethiopians were likely to use the new territory as “a bargaining chip”.