Crisis could presage lasting peace

The global effects of the terrorist attacks on the United States on 11 September are now reverberating through Afghanistan, exacerbating the country's pre-existing humanitarian crisis, but the realignment of forces that appears to be under way, nationally and internationally, gives hope of a more favourable climate for peace in Afghanistan than has existed for many years, according to Francesc Vendrell, head of the UN's Special Mission for Afghanistan (UNSMA).

"This could be a time for a better future for Afghanistan, if the international community approaches the Afghan people as partners in its stuggle against terrorism," he told a press conference in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Thursday, 27 September.

Both the UN General Assembly and the UN Security Council had called for a political settlement in Afghanistan that allowed for the establishment of a broad-based and fully representative government in Afghanistan, and "this aim was now more relevant than ever", Vendrell said.

Both the establishment of such a government and achievement of anti-terrorism goals could best be accomplished if Afghans were persuaded that the international community was seriously committed to a lasting political solution, which would involve the establishment of a government that enjoyed both internal and external legitimacy, he added.

"This must be a truly Afghan solution, allowing the Afghans - without outside political interference - to freely determine their future and to select a government that is committed to pluralism, respect for human rights and minorities, and friendly relations with all its neighbours," said Vendrell, who is also the personal representative of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to Afghanistan.

"The international community must not let the Afghan people down," Vendrell concluded.

The former king of Afghanistan, Mohammad Zahir Shah, has indicated his willingness to be part of any process of establishing a government in Afghanistan if the ruling Taliban regime were to be toppled, according to media reports.

US officials have also held a meeting with Zahir Shah "to assess the situation in Afghanistan" as one of many contacts they have had with Afghan political groups and individuals, according to State Department spokesman Richard Boucher on Tuesday.

Analysts have also told IRIN of a widespread belief in Afghanistan, and among Afghans in neighbouring countries, that Zahir Shah could be involved in the process of reaching a lasting political solution, help achieve some unity and sustain the country's territorial integrity in a difficult, fractious region.

The Afghan opposition Northern Alliance has also been in touch with the former king (who ruled from 1933 to 1973, before being deposed in a bloodless coup by his cousin, Mohammad Daud Khan, who later became president of an Afghan republic) and was willing to include him in discussion on the country's governance in the event of the Taliban being overthrown, according to its spokeman, Sayed Sardar Ahmad Ahmadi, quoted by AFP news agency on Thursday.

American officials are understood to be in the midst of policy discussions on whether America should restrict itself to retaliatory attacks on suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden, and the Taliban, which has given him sanctuary, or to actively work for the overthrow of the Taliban regime.

Pakistan, which has aligned itself with the US-led coalition against terrorism despite close historic links with the Taliban, has nonetheless cautioned against the international community pushing for the Taliban's replacement with the opposition Northern Alliance. Foreign Minister Abdus Sattar has said that any attempt to install the Alliance in government would be "a recipe for disaster", and reportedly persuaded the US to bear in mind Pakistan's sensitivities and historic disputes with it.

Russia's promise of increased military support for the Northern Alliance could also be seen as an attempt to legitimise its active involvement in the internal Afghan conflict, and to present its particular strategic interests in the region as a necessary and important component of the global anti-terrorist agenda, the Eurasianet news service reported on Thursday, 27 September.

The Northern Alliance consists mainly of Afghans of ethnic Tajik, Uzbek, Turkmen and Hazara origin. These groups comprised less than 30 percent of the population of Afghanistan and could never hope to be acceptable on their own to the majority Pashtun population, according to regional analysts.

Indeed, there was also the danger of this alliance coming quickly apart in the event of US military strikes or the overthrow of the Taliban, and of the different constituent mujahidin (Islamic militias) turning on each other, as they did after forcing the withdrawal from Afghanistan of the Soviet Union, the analysts said.

The Northern Alliance needed time to recover from the shock of the recent assassination of its respected military commander Ahmad Shah Mas'ud, which had left something of a leadership vacuum - despite the appointment of Mohammad Fahim Khan as his replacement, they added.

For Afghans, question marks also hang over the Northern Alliance leader, Burhanuddin Rabbani (the president of Afghanistan, who holds the Afghan seat at United Nations, which has never recognised the Taliban), because of his long absence from the country, and because his presidency was marked by conflict between the mujahidin - with particular violence in Kabul - which Rabbani appeared unwilling or unable to stop, Afghan sources told IRIN on Friday.

They suggested that a traditional Afghan Loya Jirgah, or supreme national tribal assembly bringing together leaders from diverse social sectors, should be convened, but admitted that where and when this might occur, and who might might chair it, would be difficult issues to resolve.

It was such a Loya Jirgah, (the members of which - notable tribal elders - were then appointed by provincial governors) which in January 1977 adopted a new constitution providing for presidential government to succeed the monarchic system. This constitition paved the way for Mohammad Daud Khan's accession to the country's presidency.

In addition to Mohammad Zahir Shah and Rabbani, those looking at shaping a new political dispensation might do well to include the "moderate and scholarly figures" of a former president, Shaykh Sibghatullah Mujaddadi, and Sayed Shah Gilani - either or both of whom might have sufficient broad respect among the population to bring together supporters of the Northern Alliance and the majority Pashtun population, according to one Afghanistan observer.

Meanwhile, Central Asian states which have pledged support for the American-led coalition against terrorism (which include Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, to varying degrees) have also warned of the dangers of broadening the canvas to include regime removal, especially in light of a potential backlash among militant Muslims in the region on those of Afghanistan's neighbours who supported such moves.

According to regional analysts, moderate voices in the US administration would be well aware of the particular domestic constraints of its new partners in Central Asia, the danger that toppling regimes could end the broad-based international coalition it has worked so hard to create, and the myriad long-term risks of being seen to meddle in such a volatile, unstable region.