First reactions to strikes on Afghanistan

Political analysts here believe there is an increased danger of a humanitarian crisis in Kyrgyzstan if there is an influx of refugees from neighbouring countries as a consequence of the US-led air strikes against Afghanistan, which began on Sunday night. There is concern over the possible entry of Islamic extremists posing as refugees, who could engage in terrorist attacks. "The US reaction was predictable, and now the risks of a major humanitarian crisis are even greater for Kyrgyzstan," one analyst, Dzhyrgalbek Kasabolotov, told IRIN on Monday. Kyrgyzstan did not share a border with Afghanistan, but could be easily targeted by refugees from neighbouring Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as a safe haven, he said. "Kyrgyzstan must consider the situation of Uzbekistan, which has accepted US soldiers on its territory. An estimated 500,000 ethnic Uzbeks live in southwest Kyrgyzstan. Many Uzbeks from Uzbekistan will cross the border to stay with their relatives in Kyrgyzstan if there is trouble at home," warned Kasabolotov. AFP reported on Monday that the Taliban had sent 8,000 soldiers to the Afghan-Uzbek border to engage in a jihad (holy war) against Uzbekistan. Tashkent has agreed to support the US-led coalition and allowed 1,000 US mountain troops to be stationed on its territory. Earlier, on Saturday, Kyrgyz Defence Minister Esen Topoyev offered Kyrgyz airspace to the US for use in military strikes on Afghanistan. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which fights the legal governments of Central Asia with a view to replacing them with purist Islamic systems, and which is believed to have strong links with Osama bin Laden, the prime suspect in the 11 September attacks in the US, has in the past used southern Kyrgyzstan as a corridor through which to mount attacks in Uzbekistan. The IMU commander, Juman Namangani, is believed to be hiding in Tajikistan, which shares a poorly controlled border with Kyrgyzstan. In Kyrgyzstan, the most outspoken supporters of the US-led campaign are the 1,500 or so Afghan refugees, regarding it as a first step towards a solution to the civil war which has devastated their country for 23 years. "We fully support the bombing of Afghanistan as long as it is limited to strategic locations where no civilians live. This military campaign is also positive for Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, because it will prevent the IMU and the Taliban from operating in this part of Central Asia," an Afghan refugee community leader, Salim Naziri, told IRIN on Monday. Others, however, warn that Kyrgyzstan should be careful, because it could rapidly find itself on the front line against the Taliban. "The Tajik-Afghan border is partly guarded by Tajik border guards, the reliability of whose control is questionable. This means that terrorists could easily get deep into Central Asia," said Kasabolotov. Most Afghan refugees congregated on the Tajik border are ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks, who could easily cross over. There is fear in the region that such refugees could be joined by IMU fighters or Taliban, and then engage in terrorist acts in Uzbekistan, and even in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. On Monday AFP quoted a Kyrgyz official, speaking on condition of anonymity, as acknowledging that "the US administration had expressed its desire to buy a large number of arms and ammunition for the Northern Alliance from Kyrgyzstan". Such a move, if carried out, could increase the risk of retaliation by the IMU or the Taliban within Kyrgyzstan. Also on Monday, Kyrgyz newspapers gave a factual description of the US-led air strikes against Afghanistan, without comment.