Choice of new mediator critical, report warns

Burundi analyst Jan van Eck of the South Africa-based Centre for Conflict Resolution (CCR) has warned that unless a “genuinely new and acceptable” mediation for the Burundi peace process is agreed upon at a regional summit later this month, the prospects for durable peace will be extremely remote. In his latest report, received by IRIN on Tuesday, van Eck said the choice of mediator was critical and the wishes of the Burundian government must be taken into account. He noted increasing opposition among President Pierre Buyoya’s support base to continuing the Arusha process in view of the fact it had produced few results, particularly in the field of security and economic development. “Unless the new mediation is seen as more non-partisan and produces results in these areas - especially security - this opposition is likely to intensify and will eventually leave the government with no choice but to withdraw from the mediation process,” the report warned. “The option of finding a solution through negotiations is in permanent competition with the ‘alternative’ of finding a solution through military means,” the report pointed out, stressing that the new mediation would have to ensure the negotiations option became “much more attractive” than war. “Merely making marginal and cosmetic changes to the present mediation process will most definitely not achieve this,” the report said. With uncertainty hanging over the DRC peace process, the report also expressed concern over the “spectre of new regional war” looming in the Great Lakes, specifically targeting Burundi and Rwanda with the reported movement of ex-FAR, Interahamwe and FDD rebels into Burundi and northwest Tanzania. This “resurrects” the option of removing the Buyoya government by force and could undermine the commitment to finding a negotiated settlement, the report warned.